Severe Weather 2024

[Gail]

No severe storms thankfully, but it sure is rainy today!
View attachment 24071

It’s been pouring here since last night. Areas are flooding. My dog thinks she can scare thunder away so between her barking and the thunder we’ve all been up since 2 am. /yawn

 

[Clancy]

It’s been pouring here since last night. Areas are flooding. My dog thinks she can scare thunder away so between her barking and the thunder we’ve all been up since 2 am. /yawn

Braver than my dog, who just finds the nearest bed to hind under!

 

[JPWX]

Braver than my dog, who just finds the nearest bed to hind under!

Poor doggo

 

[JPWX]

NWS JAN: "Cyclogenesis over the central CONUS will facilitate a consistent
moisture return with southwesterly flow. This will lead to the rise
of precipitable water values to 2-2.5 inches and dewpoints into the
mid-upper 60s in the area by Monday. As the main frontal
zone/shortwave dips into the area, the environment will become
increasingly favorable for severe storm development on Monday and/or
Tuesday. Dew points will be good, 0-6 km bulk shear will exceed
40kts instability will be sufficient and 500 heights will range from
574-578dm, supporting the possibility of stronger storms, some of
which may be severe. Heavy rain, hail and damaging winds will be the
primary threats. While timing is uncertain and confidence is low
based on model variability the potential for severe weather remains.
However, at this time, we will not mention this potential in HWO
graphics. As the event approaches and more models show consistency,
there may be need for HWO graphics in the future.

The active weather pattern will persist through the end of next week
with multiple embedded shortwaves dipping into the area keeping rain
chances consistent. There is potential for a more significant event
to round off the week and shift the pattern by Friday/Saturday. With
the prolonged period of rain/storms flash flood products may be
needed but is not being advertised on HWO graphics at this
time."

NWS MEG: "Mid to long range models continue to show southwest upper-level
flow aloft developing over the Lower Mississippi Valley for much
of next week. A mid-level trough will rotate through the Upper
Midwest early next week with a weak cold front dropping into the
region by Tuesday. This front is expected to weaken and become
nearly quasi-stationary across the region with the potential for
lingering shower and thunderstorm chances through next week.

Long range ensemble guidance indicates the potential for surface-
based CAPE values to range between 500-800 J/kg Monday afternoon
and evening. However, shear will only average around 25 kts for
quasi-organization as better kinematics will remain displaced over
the Upper Midwest. This may be enough to support perhaps a few
strong thunderstorms during this time frame early next week."

 

[JPWX]

Apparently someone forgot that we can still have severe weather with CAPE values between 500-800. It's called Low CAPE/High shear events, but God forbid we even mention that.

 

[Clancy]

Apparently someone forgot that we can still have severe weather with CAPE values between 500-800. It's called Low CAPE/High shear events, but God forbid we even mention that.

I mean in fairness, that was some pretty robust language for MEG's standards.

 

[JPWX]

I mean in fairness, that was some pretty robust language for MEG's standards.

Would you believe me if I said I've seen worse. But I'll give them credit for even mentioning surface based CAPE/instability at this juncture.

 

[Clancy]

Would you believe me if I said I've seen worse. But I'll give them credit for even mentioning surface based CAPE/instability at this juncture.

Oooh I could believe it haha

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Would you believe me if I said I've seen worse. But I'll give them credit for even mentioning surface based CAPE/instability at this juncture.

Agree. Saw the surface base mentioned.I like to fell out be honest . Jesus

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Apparently someone forgot that we can still have severe weather with CAPE values between 500-800. It's called Low CAPE/High shear events, but God forbid we even mention that.

It seems they mentioned that they expect shear to also be low in the very next sentence.

 

[JPWX]

It seems they mentioned that they expect shear to also be low in the very next sentence.

They did, but JAN said 40 kts shear expected so why would you not have higher shear further north as well

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Would you believe me if I said I've seen worse. But I'll give them credit for even mentioning surface based CAPE/instability at this juncture.

Need find the afd from MEG. January 22 1999…. Gruesome as you could ever see one lol . Course it was a bad outbreak expected They used the words large violent killer tornadoes ️

 

[warneagle]

Meanwhile, in California

 

[JPWX]

Who had a Tornado Warning right next to a Winter Storm Warning/Blizzard Warning on their 2024 Bingo Card?

 

[Clancy]

Funnel cloud from CA, possible tornado based on radar data.

 

[JPWX]

Severe weather threat or not next week, looks like the primary risk (outside of any severe threat) looks to be heavy rain/flash flooding.

High probabilities of exceeding 2 inches with a fair amount of low probabilities of exceeding 4 inches.

 

[JPWX]

PWAT values by late next week/early next weekend

 

[CheeselandSkies]

LR severe weather potentials repeatedly morphing into heavy rain events for the South...perhaps a sign of continuing El Nino influence?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Im still locked in for March 8-9th!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Euro isn't half bad, but that trough evolution needs to be sorted out, still lots of questions but I think there's potential around that time.

A quality warm sector should be easily available given the right evolution