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Severe Weather 2024

Models: Severe Weather Potential
WXTwitter: YAY!
Next Run: Nope
WXTwitter: Awh!
Next Run: Severe Weather Potential
WXTwitter: YAY!
 
Tulsa has been dropping severe weather stuff all week along with their Skywarn programs. I will say this chart got my attention. Like I know this happens just didn't know it was happening that much. Would like to see the bar graph spread over decades.

 
Current February 2024 tornado count: 46 (2 possible EF2+)
Current February ENSO Forecast: Weakening El Nino/Neutral trending towards La Nina

(Continuation of 3 year La Nina) February 2000: 58 tornadoes (4 EF2+)
(Continuation of 3 year La Nina) March 2000: 103 tornadoes (7 EF2+)
(Weakening La Nina) February 2001: 31 tornadoes (11 EF2+)
(Weakening La Nina) March 2001: 34 tornadoes (7 EF2+)
(Neutral trending towards El Nino) February 2002: 2 tornadoes (0 EF2+)
(Neutral trending towards El Nino) March 2002: 47 tornadoes (4 EF2+)
(El Nino) February 2003: 18 tornadoes (1 EF2+)
(El Nino) March 2003: 43 tornadoes (3 EF2+)
(Neutral trending towards Modoki El Nino) February 2004: 9 tornadoes (1 EF2+)
(Neutral trending towards Modoki El Nino) March 2004: 50 tornadoes (3 EF2+)
(Weak El Nino trending towards Neutral) February 2005: 10 tornadoes (0 EF2+)
(Weak El Nino trending towards Neutral) March 2005: 62 tornadoes (3 EF2+)
(La Nina) February 2006: 12 tornadoes (1 EF2+)
(La Nina) March 2006: 158 tornadoes (38 EF2+)
(Neutral trending towards La Nina) February 2007: 63 tornadoes (12 EF2+)
(Neutral trending towards La Nina) March 2007: 171 tornadoes (33 EF2+)
(La Nina) February 2008: 158 tornadoes (39 EF2+)
(La Nina) March 2008: 131 tornadoes (20 EF2+)
(Weakening La Nina trending towards Neutral) February 2009: 37 tornadoes (10 EF2+)
(Weakening La Nina trending towards Neutral) March 2009: 117 tornadoes (12 EF2+)
(El Nino) February 2010: 1 tornado (0 EF2+)
(El Nino) March 2010: 33 tornadoes (6 EF2+)
(Weakening La Nina trending towards Neutral) February 2011: 64 tornadoes (13 EF2+)
(Weakening La Nina trending towards Neutral) March 2011: 75 tornadoes (9 EF2+)
(Weakening La Nina trending towards Neutral) February 2012: 61 tornadoes (25 EF2+)
(Weakening La Nina trending towards Neutral) March 2012: 164 tornadoes (47 EF2+)
(Neutral) February 2013: 39 tornadoes (3 EF2+)
(Neutral) March 2013: 18 tornadoes (3 EF2+)
(Neutral trending towards El Nino) February 2014: 42 tornadoes (4 EF2+)
(Neutral trending towards El Nino) March 2014: 20 tornadoes (1 EF2+)
(El Nino) February 2015: 3 tornadoes (0 EF2+)
(El Nino) March 2015: 11 tornadoes (2 EF2+)
(Weakening El Nino trending towards Neutral/La Nina) February 2016: 105 tornadoes (18 EF2+)
(Weakening El Nino trending towards Neutral/La Nina) March 2016: 94 tornadoes (10 EF2+)
(Neutral trending towards El Nino that actually became La Nina) February 2017: 111 tornadoes (26 EF2+)
(Neutral trending towards El Nino that actually became La Nina) March 2017: 158 tornadoes (22 EF2+)
(Weakening La Nina trending towards Neutral) February 2018: 108 tornadoes (18 EF2+)
(Weakening La Nina trending towards Neutral) March 2018: 114 tornadoes (14 EF2+)
(Weak El Nino) February 2019: 27 tornadoes (2 EF2+)
(Weak El Nino) March 2019: 113 tornadoes (19 EF2+)
(Neutral) February 2020: 42 tornadoes (7 EF2+)
(Neutral) March 2020: 89 tornadoes (15 EF2+)
(La Nina trending towards Neutral) February 2021: 12 tornadoes (2 EF2+)
(La Nina trending towards Neutral) March 2021: 144 tornadoes (23 EF2+)
(La Nina) February 2022: 11 tornadoes (3 EF2+)
(La Nina) March 2022: 240 tornadoes (39 EF2+)
(Neutral) February 2023: 55 tornadoes (3 EF2+)
(Neutral) March 2023: 253 tornadoes (27 EF2+)
 
Jackson AFD this afternoon.

Monday-Thursday: cyclogenesis over central CONUS will allow for
consistent moisture return, as this will help PWs rise to 1-1.5in
and dewpoints rise into the mid 60s in the area by Monday/Tuesday.
With the main cold front progged to push through the area sometime
Monday into Tuesday expect lingering showers and thunderstorms to
remain in the forecast through Thursday. While this will be a
prolonged period of rain, some higher amounts will be possible
Monday/Tuesday if the system becomes convective. Flash flooding is
not a concern for this event as previous dry conditions and the
expectation for accumulation of many hours will allow for soils to
rebound quite fast. As the main frontal boundary pushes through
there looms the threat for severe weather. Most models are
consistent that most of the rain will be stratiform but show a good
environment. The GFS shows that the storm environment could
produce severe storms. Both Monday and Tuesday seem to have good
lapse rates, ascent trailing the main boundary signaling another
source of instability, high vertical totals >27 and strong deep
level shear around 50ks. While timing is not a certain and
confidence is low, the possibility for severe weather remains.
However, wl not mention this potential in the HWO graphics at this
time. As the event nears and more models show consistency there
may be a need for graphics in the future. This prolonged period of
rain will end all fire weather concerns in the near future
following the period
Click to expand...
 
Okay so who broke wind between Yazoo City and Greenwood?
 

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