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Severe Weather 2024

It is from Reed, but fwiw, he may end up being correct. Modelled trough ejection has sped up and I wouldn't be surprised at all if this is what ends up happening.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Looks like there's going to be some degree of phasing involved between the polar and subtropical jets. How that shakes out is going to be key to how exactly the trough ejects and that's always a tough thing for the models to pin down, sometimes even inside of 48 hours.
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If phase does occur. We are going be looking at much stronger slp also …. This could get interesting …. Watching closely because I may take some vacation days to chase if close by
 
Hopefully not KGWX
 
From Memphis, and this is all they said:
"A potent trough will drop down across the Central CONUS by the middle of next week. This could be a system worth watching. "
 
JBishopwx said:
From Memphis, and this is all they said:
"A potent trough will drop down across the Central CONUS by the middle of next week. This could be a system worth watching. "
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Insert facepalm emoji
 
JBishopwx said:
From Memphis, and this is all they said:
"A potent trough will drop down across the Central CONUS by the middle of next week. This could be a system worth watching. "
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I mean, that's really all that can be said at this range without getting into too much conjecture, but the problem with them is it doesn't get much better closer in.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
I mean, that's really all that can be said at this range without getting into too much conjecture, but the problem with them is it doesn't get much better closer in.
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That's what I meant especially that last part. It is what it is though.
 
Verbatim there are some flies in the ointment on the GFS soundings, in particular some large-ish T/Td spreads like on that St. Louis one, and a fairly stout low-level inversion on soundings further north (like here in southern Wisconsin) where the spreads are smaller. However, at this range I'm not gonna worry about that too much especially after what happened here on February 8th.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Last couple GFS runs not as impressive, with little phasing and a positively titled/strung out look. Lots of fast SW flow at 500mb but little coherent surface response. Still lots of time to go, however.
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Could be that time bout when gfs goes wonky sometimes even looses a system , then bring it back . Time will tell … euro holding to more potent system. Sounds like SPC fixing bring out the crayons and highlight perhaps rather large area by tomorrows outlook…
 
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