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Severe Weather 2024

ashtonlemleywx said:
The models are showing most activity between Feb 22 - Feb 29. It would be right on schedule with what we typically see in February. Usually 2 or 3 severe days spaced out every 10-14 days.
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Yeah. I figure we'll get another heavy rain/severe threat before we head into another cold snap going into March
 
ashtonlemleywx said:
The models are showing most activity between Feb 22 - Feb 29. It would be right on schedule with what we typically see in February. Usually 2 or 3 severe days spaced out every 10-14 days.
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Yep, that’s the period to watch.
 
GFS has been pretty consistent with fast 500mb flow over most of the CONUS with lots of pieces of energy flying around throughout the latter part of the month. However, that's about the only thing it's been consistent with. Timing, amplitude and orientation of any coherent trough ejection, and thus timing, location and ceiling of any potential severe threat, all very much up in the air at this range.
 
Timhsv said:
Yes, still long range....BUT..this is outbreak criteria at the moment with these type of CAPE and EHI values.If the trough at 500mb and wind fields comes into a productive pattern setup

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The breadth and quality of that warm sector would be almost unheard of for the time of year. I say almost because 2/28/2017 happened. That might be the most impressive run yet, although obviously way the heck far out and unlikely to verify verbatim. But every time I think the atmosphere can't possibly pull something off (this time, a tornado in Wisconsin in early February with dewpoints in the 40s), it surprises me.
 
It would make sense for a severe weather threat late month since we should go back into a winter cold type pattern in March
 
To me, March might be similar to that of 2011. Few outbreaks here and there, but not as active as the last few Marches. April though is gonna be a different story.
 
CPC with Slight Risk of Heavy Precipitation within the 12z GFS timeframe for severe storm potential
 

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February always reminds me of the 1971 Mississippi Delta Outbreak. The anniversary is on Feb 21. Produced a long track F4 and F5 (Before enhanced fujita).

Death toll was high and it leveled numerous towns in the Delta that still haven't recovered to this day.

As long as I've been a chaser, this outbreak has facinated me more than anything else.

If you go Google this outbreak you'll find a pdf that NOAA produced in its aftermath.

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Timhsv said:
Yes, still long range....BUT..this is outbreak criteria at the moment with these type of CAPE and EHI values.If the trough at 500mb and wind fields comes into a productive pattern setup
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This is a weather weenie run of the ages.
 
The 18z GFS run did have a 989mbar low
 

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06z GFS still has decent trough on Feb 27th. GFS has consistently simulated one in the Feb 26 - Feb 28 timeframe.

Euro will be in range for this tmrw but it's showing hint of a trough forming on the last frame of the 00z run.

Going with my gut to say something will most likely happen in that timeframe, especially since it would be right on schedule with our typical February pattern.
 
March 2011 was relatively inactive tornado wise across MS. Only 3 tornadoes in NWS Jackson CWA and none across North MS.
 
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