Severe Weather 2024

[NorthGaWeather]

That whole mess was cleared up…the tornado is still in check for an ef3 rating and no the news did not say that whole you need two di’s…that was said by a non nws person

Link? I only ask because I’ve seen multiple sources state that the NWS confirmed the multiple damage points line. I’m curious about their logic and if it truly was confirmed.

If that wasn’t the case, this is a good example of waiting on DI points to be verified. Things happen in the field and need to be QC’d.

 

[joshoctober16]

Definitely remains the most egregious case IMO, at least when it comes to discerning between EF4/EF5, although by itself it would only shave a year off the ongoing "EF5 drought," maybe it wouldn't have set such a bad precedent. The biggest problem IMO was we did indeed start to see the obsessive hugging to lower bounds creep down the scale, culminating in at least one instance of the complete leveling of a frame home being rated EF2 which to my understanding was not supposed to be possible. OTOH we still see some rather generous ratings like Newnan, GA of 2021. One of the "enhancements" of the EF-scale was supposed to be that it removed most of the subjectivity inherent with Fujita's original rather vague damage descriptions, but it becomes more clear with each passing year that it's failed at that.

All that said, 130 MPH EF2 or 140 MPH EF3, either way yesterday's Evansville area tornado was unusually impactful by southern Wisconsin standards, let alone for being the first (or second, heard rumblings about Juda-Albany being confirmed EF1 but again nothing straight from an MKX web page or social account) February tornado in the state since records began.

i think yesterday had more then just 2 tornadoes.

i clearly remember watching live one bowl shape tornado (not in the data)
then one chaser said he kept seeing one wall cloud droping one that kept jumping up and down (not in the data)
then there was that weird deformed looking one (is officially on the data)
there was then a cone tornado then became a drillbit (listed as the same tornado as under but velocity shows it lifted)
then there was that large wedge tornado that had a pds tornado warning (officially on the data)

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Exactly what I suspected, 140 MPH EF3 seemed a bit generous but not unreasonable to me depending on the specifics of the damage found. In the video our field crews got at work, there's a piece of overturned farm equipment. I speculated that could be EF3 depending on how far it was thrown. If it was just turned over from right where it was parked, EF2 at the most.

Charlie, bless his heart, speculated that it could be "stronger than EF3." There's a reason he's a great morning met, but not a damage surveyor.

NWS confirms two tornadoes touched down Thursday in Wisconsin

This was the first tornado ever recorded in Wisconsin to touch down in the month of February.

www.wmtv15news.com

 

[CheeselandSkies]

i think yesterday had more then just 2 tornadoes.

i clearly remember watching live one bowl shape tornado (not in the data)
then one chaser said he kept seeing one wall cloud droping one that kept jumping up and down (not in the data)
then there was that weird deformed looking one (is officially on the data)
there was then a cone tornado then became a drillbit (listed as the same tornado as under but velocity shows it lifted)
then there was that large wedge tornado that had a pds tornado warning (officially on the data)

The PDS warning was for the Evansville-Edgerton EF2 which, despite the rather alarming appearance of the debris signature, was never a large wedge per any of the video or photos yet to emerge of it.

 

[joshoctober16]

Exactly what I suspected, 140 MPH EF3 seemed a bit generous but not unreasonable to me depending on the specifics of the damage found. In the video our field crews got at work, there's a piece of overturned farm equipment. I speculated that could be EF3 depending on how far it was thrown. If it was just turned over from right where it was parked, EF2 at the most.

Charlie, bless his heart, speculated that it could be "stronger than EF3." There's a reason he's a great morning met, but not a damage surveyor.

NWS confirms two tornadoes touched down Thursday in Wisconsin

This was the first tornado ever recorded in Wisconsin to touch down in the month of February.

www.wmtv15news.com

i clearly remember the di being a 140 mph metal building being swept clean, it had anchoring bolts still visible on it, i cant seem to find it now.

 

[joshoctober16]

The PDS warning was for the Evansville-Edgerton EF2 which, despite the rather alarming appearance of the debris signature, was never a large wedge per any of the video or photos yet to emerge of it.

all the videos is from that cone drillbit, that then lifted , then it became night time and then the large tornado touched down, there was a report of it being a large wedge.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

all the videos is from that cone drillbit, that then lifted , then it became night time and then the large tornado touched down, there was a report of it being a large wedge.

Initial reports aren't always accurate.

 

[joshoctober16]

looks like now we have 3 in the data, this is close to the spot i remember it lifting.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

View attachment 23806
looks like now we have 3 in the data, this is close to the spot i remember it lifting.

Man. It went RIGHT over the I-39/90-US 51 split north of Edgerton. The fact that the WI-DOT traffic camera at that interchange was not only still standing, but still had power afterwards I think speaks to this not being a "large wedge" tornado (doesn't have to be to be fairly strong).

 

[joshoctober16]

i was talking about what i remember hearing during a live stream, also its clear it shrunk when it was north of edgerton.
also im not surpised by a tornado being wide but weak, i think we all seen it multiple times happening.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

More official info finally out. Two tornadoes confirmed so far; Evansville-Lake Koshkonong top end (135 MPH) EF2. 24.5 mile track. Insane.

2024 February Severe Weather (Updated 2/15)

 

[jiharris0220]

Deleted my earlier comment, seems that the NWS basically got gaslighted lol.
I went and checked myself to see if there was any info verifying the “1 DI= no upgrade” claim.
Turns out there’s no such thing (unsurprisingly), yet another rando on twitter spouting nonsense. Honestly that app needs an 18+ age limit or something.

 

[notsoencrypted]

Deleted my earlier comment, seems that the NWS basically got gaslighted lol.
I went and checked myself to see if there was any info verifying the “1 DI= no upgrade” claim.
Turns out there’s no such thing (unsurprisingly), yet another rando on twitter spouting nonsense. Honestly that app needs an 18+ age limit or something.

The downside is the tweet stating that was from a local met so an age limit wouldn't help on that front.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Deleted my earlier comment, seems that the NWS basically got gaslighted lol.
I went and checked myself to see if there was any info verifying the “1 DI= no upgrade” claim.
Turns out there’s no such thing (unsurprisingly), yet another rando on twitter spouting nonsense. Honestly that app needs an 18+ age limit or something.

Correct. Which is why I’m still trying to figure out why some (broadcast mets) on the cesspool that is WxTwitter claim the NWS confirmed it was true. Strange event.

 

[notsoencrypted]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Trey G. came out with a video touching on this very subject; just the morning after the tornadoes occurred.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

GFS keeps flip flopping on this trough. Something to keep an eye on.

 

[Clancy]

View attachment 23876

GFS keeps flip flopping on this trough. Something to keep an eye on.

Considering the consistency of the models lately, who knows where this one will end up.

 

[JPWX]

Considering the consistency of the models lately, who knows where this one will end up.
View attachment 23877

So I take it the globals are non recyclable?! LOL!

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

The models are showing most activity between Feb 22 - Feb 29. It would be right on schedule with what we typically see in February. Usually 2 or 3 severe days spaced out every 10-14 days.