Severe Weather 2024

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[Tennie]

I had just read this article over on the AlabamaWX blog regarding the forecast:

Could be 500 Year Flood for Los Angeles : The Alabama Weather Blog

www.alabamawx.com

The message in that article stood out in particular (emphasis added by the article):

Area Hydrological Discussion #027 – EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center – Tuscaloosa, AL
1231 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024


WHAT: Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding
WHERE: Southern California
WHEN: Through this evening


FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS:
QPF: 2 – 4″, locally higher (HRRR)
QPE: up to 2″ (MRMS past 12 hours)
Rates: up to 1.5/hr (HRRR)
Soils: 60 – 80% (0 – 10 cm RSM, NASA SPoRT)
Streamflows: Much above normal (USGS)


DISCUSSION…
Moderate to heavy rainfall will continue to shift southward,
increasing the chances of flooding impacts across the area of
concern. Light to moderate rainfall through this morning has slowly
increased soil moisture and infiltration capacity will continue to
decrease farther south as the moisture continues to move southward
through the early afternoon, priming the area for increasing flood
threat later today and through tonight. Locally heavy rainfall will
easily convert to overland flow over the region resulting in isolated
considerable flash and urban flooding impacts.


The HRRR-Forced NWM SRF continues to indicate the potential of
Rapid-Onset Flooding (ROF) with scattered probabilities between 50 –
75% and locally higher probabilities. Additionally, MHFM continues to
indicate widespread AEPs around 20%, with an increasing number of
streams falling below 20% suggesting isolated significant higher
streamflows. This increases confidence in the potential for
significant river rises, especially since the SRF does not cover the
entire event yet. Towards the end of this AHD and potentially
overnight, considerable flooding concerns will increase as the HRRR
continues to indicate the potential for 6 hr accumulations up to 6
near Los Angeles, which would be equivalent to a 500 yr + rainfall
event or 0.2% AEP (ATLAS 14). This trend will continue to be watched,
and a subsequent AHD will most likely be needed.


GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I had just read this article over on the AlabamaWX blog regarding the forecast:

Could be 500 Year Flood for Los Angeles : The Alabama Weather Blog

www.alabamawx.com

The message in that article stood out in particular (emphasis added by the article):

Some of the video out there is ridiculous. Flooding can be very scary especially at night

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Nick Stewart is from Iowa; what the heck is he doing chasing a marginal risk in Florida in early February? Must be desperate, lol.

Just getting caught up on this thread; had other things going on yesterday because suffice it to say an outbreak of multiple highly visible, photogenic supercells/tornadoes was not on my weather bingo card.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

12z Euro for Monday. @UncleJuJu98

That run would be significant trouble next Sunday-Monday; but the 0Z run that came in overnight has a much smaller warm sector with the surface low/warm front hugging close to the coast.

 

[Clancy]

Footage from yesterday's tornado in JAX. Extremely small but it had some violent motion going on.

 

[JBishopwx]

Sunday

 

[pritchlaw]

Big time lull in the action in Central/North Alabama.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Here you go guys! @TH2002 you were right about ef2 lol

 

[JBishopwx]

Jackson not really sold on the weekend threat

 

[JPWX]

Jackson not really sold on the weekend threat

Meh. They'll come around to the idea. Mid-60s to low 70s in February always leads to trouble.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

With how we've seen the trough and surface low trend with time, I wouldn't right this off yet. The idea of a more favorable setup for severe is not totally lost in different operational model runs and ensemble guidance.

 

[JPWX]

With how we've seen the trough and surface low trend with time, I wouldn't right this off yet. The idea of a more favorable setup for severe is not totally lost in different operational model runs and ensemble guidance.

Agreed!

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Agreed!

The trough presence while it is out west has already improved.

 

[JBishopwx]

From the 12z Euro

 

[JPWX]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Yup, right on cue the next 12Z run is game on, depicting significant cyclogenesis with a broad warm sector pushing deep inland. Now to see if the 0Z run holds that or again flips back to a less potent look.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

From the 12z Euro

That's a really good warm sector for mid February on the globals. Sheesh.