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Severe Weather 2024

KevinH said:
Consistency this far out means NOTHING for Dixie as the models can still flip flop more than once between now and then. We have seen numerous times ha ha

I personally wouldn’t quite start a thread… YET, but the models picking up on this far out with GENERAL agreement is definitely something to watch.
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Actually, consistency this far out for a severe threat usually means trouble.
 
Instability is a potential limiting factor verbatim off the 12Z GFS, but this is one of the craziest forecast hodographs I've ever seen...literally off the chart due to how strong the winds are in the lowest 1KM.
 

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CheeselandSkies said:
Instability is a potential limiting factor verbatim off the 12Z GFS, but this is one of the craziest forecast hodographs I've ever seen...literally off the chart due to how strong the winds are in the lowest 1KM.
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If the instability doesn't come up with this, we will be dodging a bullet. But it would only take a marginal increase between now and then to make this setup mean real trouble.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Instability is a potential limiting factor verbatim off the 12Z GFS, but this is one of the craziest forecast hodographs I've ever seen...literally off the chart due to how strong the winds are in the lowest 1KM.
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these storms would be absolutely hauling rear end in this environment
 
MichelleH said:
Actually, consistency this far out for a severe threat usually means trouble.
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Usually, but not 100% of the time. Models can still flip flop and/or back off like they have before.

We all know Dixie can have a few tricks up her sleeve, so I wouldn’t put TOO much stock in what the models are saying at this point… well. Not yet anyway. Still WAAAAAY too early to be more than a little concerned.

If the models come into better agreement, consistently, and if the SPC highlights this time frame, then I would say increased concern is warranted.
 
Clancy said:
If the instability doesn't come up with this, we will be dodging a bullet. But it would only take a marginal increase between now and then to make this setup mean real trouble.
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Yep… and this may end up becoming a “tricky” conditional event. Dixie doesn’t need off the charts severe ingredients to produce an outbreak.

The threat areas, so far, look to be in MS, AL, and GA (where I live).
 
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Clancy said:
If the instability doesn't come up with this, we will be dodging a bullet. But it would only take a marginal increase between now and then to make this setup mean real trouble.
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Wouldn’t pay whole lot attention to instability just yet …. 3 out 4 times models seem to underestimate it bad …. Let’s see how it plays out next couple days . But damn the wind fields are just off charts
 
Wouldn’t pay whole lot attention to instability just yet …. 3 out 4 times models seem to underestimate it bad …. Let’s see how it plays out next couple days . But damn the wind fields are just off charts
Right…

Me watching this system:
kevin hart GIF
 
Interestingly, JAN's long-term AFD mentions the 1/09 system, despite it being beyond long-term range.
Thursday-Sunday...

The extended forecast period will begin quiet and transition into a
an active period into the weekend. Thursday will see a break from
the rainfall and rain will return Friday evening into Saturday. A
series of shortwaves will move through the area over the weekend
bringing increased rain chances, drying in the wake before the next
frontal system.

On Thursday, a surface ridging pattern over the Mid-West will bring
dry and quiet conditions ahead of the next shortwave feature.
Afternoon temperatures in the lower to middle 50s are expected. With
sufficient cooling and calm winds during the evening, overnight lows
are expected to drop to the mid/upper 20s to lower 30s.

As Friday afternoon progress, expect cloud coverage to increase as
an upper level trough pushes a low pressure center, located near the
TX/LA Gulf coast, towards the CWA. Low-level southerly flow will
help moisture from the Gulf return, which increases rain potential
areawide heading into the weekend. Rain showers are expected and an
isolated thunderstorm can`t be ruled out south of I-20. Any
accumulating rainfall from this system will help relieve drought
conditions.

As the shortwave trough and associated low pressure center moves
towards the Atlantic coastline, rainfall will come to an end
Saturday evening into Sunday. A surface ridge axis settles over the
region, allowing for a brief drying period going into the beginning
of next week as stronger longwave trough/organized frontal system
approaches from the Central Plains. We will have to monitor the
system as there are signals for more organized convection, so stay
tuned. /SW/
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I wouldn't hold my breath for MEG to mention anything about it yet. If they do, it'll be severe potential will depend on how much instability.
 
From CPC concerning the 9th system.
 

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MEG afternoon discussion on the January 9th system: "
The
next system will start impacting the Mid-South late Monday with
rain possibly spreading into the region."
 
I wanted to bring back a memory since we are getting in it's territory in terms of synoptics.
UncleJuJu98 said:
You live within all of our hearts now, you special you ; you 12z euro you. Coming back to this post when the time frame is upon us a bookmark for the ages for Alabama lol. Bookmarking now!View attachment 18065View attachment 18066View attachment 18067View attachment 18068View attachment 18069
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The quotes heights vs this events heights. not exact but I thought I'd share ecmwf_z500a_us_62_1.pnggfs_z500aNorm_us_32.png
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
I wanted to bring back a memory since we are getting in it's territory in terms of synoptics.

The quotes heights vs this events heights. not exact but I thought I'd share
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March 3rd, that was a spooky day for us in the Atlanta metro.
 
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