Severe Weather 2024

[Clancy]

I wouldn't be concerned about instability levels yet. The way the GFS and Euro have that trough, it would be easier for deep Gulf moisture to be funnel further north especially if the system slows down a bit. Besides it's Dixie we're talking about here. Not tornado alley. Dixie doesn't play by the normal lack of instability rules which for some reason is always the biggest thing that gets harped on. I mean I see why and the reason, but there's other things like wind shear that can compensate for the instability.

I've noticed that during the winter, the globals don't always handle moisture return and instability too well, especially at longer ranges. That being said, regardless of how much instability we get, I really don't like the look of the wind fields forecasted.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

all i can for now at first is wow, the 12zgfs. let me dig into more of it

 

[Clancy]

Sheesh. 90 kts bulk shear ahead of the front on 12Z GFS.

 

[JPWX]

Storm Relative Helicity values off the chart literally. I'm going to assume the temperature and dewpoint will be much higher than what the GFS is hinting at especially given you should see a due South wind that leads to more moisture/higher dewpoint air.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Sheesh. 90 kts bulk shear ahead of the front on 12Z GFS.
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yeah, i had to step back a minute.... thats insane. trough most definitely taking on a negative tilted look

 

[JPWX]

Plus that 978mbar though I would assume won't be that low is just asking for trouble. That's a favorable setup though for a more southerly wind direction off the Gulf. I don't like it one bit.

 

[Clancy]

Plus that 978mbar though I would assume won't be that low is just asking for trouble. That's a favorable setup though for a more southerly wind direction off the Gulf. I don't like it one bit.

Thank the sweet lord this isn't April.

 

[KevinH]

Thank the sweet lord this isn't April.

It could be…. Dixie doesn’t care what the calendar says.

Don’t jinx us lol

 

[Weatherphreak]

These systems always tend to slow down and the lows tend to shift northwest which would bring in more robust moisture. January last year May have been more active than April for a lot of places.

 

[JPWX]

January Deep South/Southeast Severe Weather Events: (1990s to current)

January 23rd-24th, 1997 (Level 4-Moderate Risk) (January ENSO Status: Neutral)
January 17th-18th, 1999 (1) (Unknown Risk level) (January ENSO Status: 3 year La Nina)
January 21st-23rd, 1999 (2) (Level 5-High Risk) (January ENSO Status: 3 year La Nina)
January 7th-11th, 2008 (Level 4-Moderate Risk) (January ENSO Status: La Nina)
January 22nd-23rd, 2012 (Level 4-Moderate Risk) (January ENSO Status: Weakening La Nina transitioning to Neutral)
January 29th-30th, 2013 (Level 4-Moderate Risk) (January ENSO Status: Neutral)
January 21st-23rd, 2017 (Level 5-High Risk) (January ENSO Status: Neutral)
January 10th-11th, 2020 (Level 4-Moderate Risk) (January ENSO Status: Neutral)
January 12th, 2023 (Level 3-Enhanced Risk) (January ENSO Status: Weak La Nina transitioning to Neutral)

 

[KevinH]

January Deep South/Southeast Severe Weather Events: (1990s to current)

January 23rd-24th, 1997 (Level 4-Moderate Risk) (January ENSO Status: Neutral)
January 17th-18th, 1999 (1) (Unknown Risk level) (January ENSO Status: 3 year La Nina)
January 21st-23rd, 1999 (2) (Level 5-High Risk) (January ENSO Status: 3 year La Nina)
January 7th-11th, 2008 (Level 4-Moderate Risk) (January ENSO Status: La Nina)
January 22nd-23rd, 2012 (Level 4-Moderate Risk) (January ENSO Status: Weakening La Nina transitioning to Neutral)
January 29th-30th, 2013 (Level 4-Moderate Risk) (January ENSO Status: Neutral)
January 21st-23rd, 2017 (Level 5-High Risk) (January ENSO Status: Neutral)
January 10th-11th, 2020 (Level 4-Moderate Risk) (January ENSO Status: Neutral)
January 12th, 2023 (Level 3-Enhanced Risk) (January ENSO Status: Weak La Nina transitioning to Neutral)

How is the ENSO expected to be changing for the first half of January compared to what you just posted?

 

[MichelleH]

January Deep South/Southeast Severe Weather Events: (1990s to current)

January 23rd-24th, 1997 (Level 4-Moderate Risk) (January ENSO Status: Neutral)
January 17th-18th, 1999 (1) (Unknown Risk level) (January ENSO Status: 3 year La Nina)
January 21st-23rd, 1999 (2) (Level 5-High Risk) (January ENSO Status: 3 year La Nina)
January 7th-11th, 2008 (Level 4-Moderate Risk) (January ENSO Status: La Nina)
January 22nd-23rd, 2012 (Level 4-Moderate Risk) (January ENSO Status: Weakening La Nina transitioning to Neutral)
January 29th-30th, 2013 (Level 4-Moderate Risk) (January ENSO Status: Neutral)
January 21st-23rd, 2017 (Level 5-High Risk) (January ENSO Status: Neutral)
January 10th-11th, 2020 (Level 4-Moderate Risk) (January ENSO Status: Neutral)
January 12th, 2023 (Level 3-Enhanced Risk) (January ENSO Status: Weak La Nina transitioning to Neutral)

There was also an F3 on January 19, 1988 that went through Cullman Co. and the city of Cullman that injured 35 people. It severely damaged our K-Mart - including sucking out the windows - with customers in the store.

 

[JPWX]

How is the ENSO expected to be changing for the first half of January compared to what you just posted?

As of December 26th, here's what the CPC has: "El Nino conditions expected to remain thru winter with a transition to Neutral ENSO by April."

 

[JPWX]

However, it should be noted that based off the December CANSIPS run, it has us transitioning to a La Nina by April.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

However, it should be noted that based off the December CANSIPS run, it has us transitioning to a La Nina by April.

Latest showing la. Niña enso spring

 

[Clancy]

12Z Euro coming in with a similar solution to the GFS. They've been staying consistent for a while now.

 

[MichelleH]

12Z Euro coming in with a similar solution to the GFS. They've been staying consistent for a while now.
View attachment 22773

I don't like this.

 

[Clancy]

I don't like this.

Can't say I'm a huge fan of it either.

 

[JPWX]

12z Euro taken at face value would be a outbreak of multi-cell/supercells out ahead of the main line and along the warm front which can be clearly depicted.

 

[KevinH]

12Z Euro coming in with a similar solution to the GFS. They've been staying consistent for a while now.
View attachment 22773

Consistency this far out means NOTHING for Dixie as the models can still flip flop more than once between now and then. We have seen numerous times ha ha

I personally wouldn’t quite start a thread… YET, but the models picking up on this far out with GENERAL agreement is definitely something to watch.