JPWX
Member
SPC is already giving hints at another threat this weekend into next week
...DISCUSSION...
...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward from the
West Coast on Friday into the Desert Southwest on Saturday. Moisture
return is forecast take place ahead of the trough across the
southern and central Plains, with surface dewpoints reaching the 50s
and possibly low 60s F, from north Texas into south-central Kansas.
As large-scale ascent comes out into the southern and central Plains
during the evening, scattered strong to severe thunderstorm
development will be possible. Large hail and wind damage are
expected to be the primary threats. There is still considerable
uncertainty on Saturday, mainly due to the lack of low-level
moisture and instability.
...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8...
The upper-level low over the Desert Southwest is forecast to move
into the north-central U.S. on Sunday, as a cold front advances
eastward into the Ark-La-Tex. Isolated to scattered strong
thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front.
However, uncertainty is still considerable concerning the
timing/placement of the front, and magnitude of instability.
On Monday, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place across parts
of the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. Strong
thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon and
evening. However, a lack of large-scale ascent suggests any severe
threat that develops will remain unfocused. The potential for a more
widespread severe threat may increase across the southern and
central Plains on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves across the
Desert Southwest. As forecast spatial uncertainty decreases for
Monday into Tuesday, the addition of a 15 percent contour in later
outlooks may considered.
...DISCUSSION...
...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward from the
West Coast on Friday into the Desert Southwest on Saturday. Moisture
return is forecast take place ahead of the trough across the
southern and central Plains, with surface dewpoints reaching the 50s
and possibly low 60s F, from north Texas into south-central Kansas.
As large-scale ascent comes out into the southern and central Plains
during the evening, scattered strong to severe thunderstorm
development will be possible. Large hail and wind damage are
expected to be the primary threats. There is still considerable
uncertainty on Saturday, mainly due to the lack of low-level
moisture and instability.
...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8...
The upper-level low over the Desert Southwest is forecast to move
into the north-central U.S. on Sunday, as a cold front advances
eastward into the Ark-La-Tex. Isolated to scattered strong
thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front.
However, uncertainty is still considerable concerning the
timing/placement of the front, and magnitude of instability.
On Monday, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place across parts
of the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. Strong
thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon and
evening. However, a lack of large-scale ascent suggests any severe
threat that develops will remain unfocused. The potential for a more
widespread severe threat may increase across the southern and
central Plains on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves across the
Desert Southwest. As forecast spatial uncertainty decreases for
Monday into Tuesday, the addition of a 15 percent contour in later
outlooks may considered.
