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Severe Weather 2023

TH2002 said:
There have been a handful of violent TX tornadoes in the first half of June, but definitely not on or after the solstice. Tornado activity in this region typically hits a brick wall after June 10 or so.
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Gotcha, that makes sense. With what you said in mind, it's crazy that that region may possibly see even more these next couple days.
 
KCweatherboy said:
I don't think it will end up being rated an EF5, but there are many examples of damage (throughout various pics/videos I've seen online) that have been seen in previous violent Plains tornadoes.
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If there's a well-built home swept away somewhere along the path I would call it an EF5 without hesitation.

The thing is, the chances of a tornado reaching EF5 intensity are small enough, but the chances of a tornado reaching that intensity and encountering a well-built house at the same time are astronomically low. Hence why we hope the EF scale update will bring things back in order...
 
TH2002 said:
If there's a well-built home swept away somewhere along the path I would call it an EF5 without hesitation.

The thing is, the chances of a tornado reaching EF5 intensity are small enough, but the chances of a tornado reaching that intensity and encountering a well-built house at the same time are astronomically low. Hence why we hope the EF scale update will bring things back in order...
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I totally agree. Still a little early, but it will be interesting to see how the survey goes given that there aren't frequently violent tornadoes in the area.
 
TH2002 said:
If there's a well-built home swept away somewhere along the path I would call it an EF5 without hesitation.

The thing is, the chances of a tornado reaching EF5 intensity are small enough, but the chances of a tornado reaching that intensity and encountering a well-built house at the same time are astronomically low. Hence why we hope the EF scale update will bring things back in order...
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The update isn't fixing it but I'm with you on wishing it was better. Based on what I've seen which is nowhere close to all of it, I can see high-end EF4 or more and can't see any sane person trying to argue for less.
 


Looks like they're taking their time with this one. Wouldn't be surprised if Tim Marshall was helping out since he was on the storm and it's a Texas tornado (and he went to Texas Tech).
 
TH2002 said:
If there's a well-built home swept away somewhere along the path I would call it an EF5 without hesitation.

The thing is, the chances of a tornado reaching EF5 intensity are small enough, but the chances of a tornado reaching that intensity and encountering a well-built house at the same time are astronomically low. Hence why we hope the EF scale update will bring things back in order...
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I mean that's just an inherent issue of rating based on damage rather than direct measurement. Tornadoes are small and buildings/towns are also small (and the number of things that can yield an EF5 rating is even smaller). Even before 2013, only a fraction of the tornadoes that reached that intensity were rated as such.

I think this is the most impressive damage I've seen this season though, especially since I suspect the standard of construction is probably a bit higher than it was in Rolling Fork.
 
warneagle said:
I mean that's just an inherent issue of rating based on damage rather than direct measurement. Tornadoes are small and buildings/towns are also small (and the number of things that can yield an EF5 rating is even smaller). Even before 2013, only a fraction of the tornadoes that reached that intensity were rated as such.

I think this is the most impressive damage I've seen this season though, especially since I suspect the standard of construction is probably a bit higher than it was in Rolling Fork.
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Of course the way we rate tornadoes was never perfect nor is it ever going to be, but it's not really debatable that the post-2013 EF scale has made EF5 a ridiculously strict engineering standard with an impossibly high bar. The inherent issues you mention do not account for examples like Vilonia, Fairdale, New Wren, Chapman and others.

There ARE tornadoes that I believe contained F5/EF5 winds but didn't really leave behind the structural damage to support such a rating (Rolling Fork as you mentioned, and South Moravia 2021 imo, among others). That's not really the main issue I have with the way tornadoes are rated, although I do believe contextual damage is just as if not more important to consider.

And to be honest, if we ever do reach a point where we can rate tornadoes using direct measurements, I doubt even that would be consistent from WFO to WFO.
 
KCweatherboy said:


Some more incredible damage videos that I don't think have been posted. Truly horrific event.

I don't think it will end up being rated an EF5, but there are many examples of damage (throughout various pics/videos I've seen online) that have been seen in previous violent Plains tornadoes.

Edit: More pictures
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Bottom right photo shows a car completely stripped to its chassis and tires. That’s something you only really see in high-end events.
 
buckeye05 said:
Bottom right photo shows a car completely stripped to its chassis and tires. That’s something you only really see in high-end events.
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That not just a car either…it was likely a bus or some other utility vehicle. There’s also another instance where a utility truck had its v8 engine ripped out and tossed 200+ yards away from the truck which itself was found as a twisted mass of metal in a pond. This tornado arguably has produced the worst vehicle damage of the decade so far. Definitely some of the worst
 
Its becoming increasingly apparent something extraordinary occurred with this tornado.
There are two labels I personally like to distinguish between, violent tornadoes and “exceptional” tornadoes.
Your ”run of the mill“ violent tornadoes usually only produce sporadic areas of high end damage, and any vehicles and foliage caught in those areas are still left recognizable and only partially debarked.
The tornadoes that are “exceptional” leave almost all types of flora fully debarked, and many vehicles along the path are either severely mangled or are simply granulated to smithereens. And this kind of damage is consistent along the path.
The last time I’ve seen damage like this in the last decade was (2016)Chapman, (2014)Vilonia, and (2013)Moore.
 
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