Severe Weather 2022 (5 Viewers)

The severe weather season for year 2022 will be?

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Taylor Campbell

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There has been a lot of variability in the forecast and any solution we are looking at can be considered with low confidence. The energy at play has been back and forth from a phase to not a phase, etc. Moisture return is also a concern after this long cold period. The recent Day 4-8 SPC outlooks summarize it well.

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 150825
SPC AC 150825

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2022

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance indicates that initially prominent mid-level
ridging, centered near coastal southeastern Alaska and British
Columbia, may gradually weaken late this week into the coming
weekend. However, downstream eastern North American mid-level
troughing, within a notable belt of stronger meridional flow
emanating from the Canadian Arctic latitudes, likely will be slower
to lose amplitude. And seasonably cold conditions may remain
entrenched across much of the U.S., before gradually beginning to
modify late in the weekend into early next week, as the westerlies
trend at least a bit more zonal. Model output becomes rather varied
concerning subsequent short wave developments emerging from the
mid-latitude Pacific during the early to middle portion of next
week. It is possible that a southerly return flow may initiate off
the western Gulf of Mexico, but inland moisture return probably will
be initially modest and elevated above a residual near-surface
stable layer, with limited convective potential.

..Kerr.. 11/15/2022


ACUS48 KWNS 170842
SPC AC 170842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 AM CST Thu Nov 17 2022

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Late this coming weekend into early next week, it appears that an
initially zonal belt of westerlies across the mid-latitude Pacific
will become more amplified while developing eastward toward North
America. By the middle to latter portion of next week, the ECENS
and GEFS mean mid-level height fields are similar depicting
large-scale mid-level ridging building within this regime across and
inland of the U.S. Pacific coast, with downstream troughing east of
the Rockies shifting toward an increasingly confluent regime across
the Atlantic Seaboard. However, in the deterministic guidance,
short wave developments within this evolving pattern have been quite
varied. Some output, from various model runs, has depicted
significant surface cyclogenesis initiating to the lee the southern
Rockies, which could potentially contribute to sufficient shear and
destabilization to support an increasing risk for severe storms as
the cyclone migrates east/northeast of the southern Great Plains by
Thanksgiving Day. At this point, though, probabilities for this
occurring still appear on the lower end, but trends will continue to
be monitored.

..Kerr.. 11/17/2022
 

Taylor Campbell

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All the local NWS meteorologist that said they leaned towards the EURO in the morning forecast package are probably now saying after today’s 12z EURO run that they may want to change their forecast. The ICON and EURO which were the only models out of the 7 overnight that were progressive shifted towards a cut off and slower system.
 

KevinH

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All the local NWS meteorologist that said they leaned towards the EURO in the morning forecast package are probably now saying after today’s 12z EURO run that they may want to change their forecast. The ICON and EURO which were the only models out of the 7 overnight that were progressive shifted towards a cut off and slower system.
I don’t know much but it seems like a slower system would allow for more moisture return right? Thanksgiving-ish may be interesting around here in GA/AL.
 
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There may be a marginal risk of severe weather with this week’s system, but the system next week is the one to watch for something potentially more significant.

SPC hinted as much in today's 4-8. The GFS run I looked at this morning (forget if it was last night's 00Z or 06Z, but one of those) definitely had the "look" at 500mb. Composite indices weren't impressive due to low CAPE, but as we know the GFS tends to underdo CAPE at longer ranges in the cool season (somehow, the opposite of its bias during the warm season). Sometimes all it takes to result in a significant tornado outbreak is a few hundred j/kg of CAPE in just the right layer to lift and stretch some high ambient SRH. Like the amount of forcing for ascent in the open warm sector vs. the strength of the cap, that's one of those crucial make-or-break details that can't really be modeled at this range with any degree of accuracy.
 

DetectiveWX

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Saw Glenn Burns's weather about a severe storm/tornado episode for Sat night in N. Georgia. Not much detail given that far out, but we almost always have a SVR/TOR event on or near Thanksgiving. And I should add today's the 30th anniversary of the Weekend Before Thanksgiving Outbreak of 1992.
 
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JPWX

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The last 2 Day 7 outlooks for the general area of the current Day 7 occurred on March 15th and April 6th earlier this year. March 15th was for the March 21st and March 22nd outbreak (Moderate Risk). April 6th was for the April 12th and 13th outbreak (Moderate Risk) 202211230845_SWOD48 (November 23rd).png spc-scentus-spc_day7_prob-9193100.png
 
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TH2002

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Unrelated to the D7 severe threat, but for us there naturally ALWAYS has to be some kind of significant weather event on Thanksgiving; if it's not a bomb cyclone combining low elevation snow with tornado warnings, it's this:
WeatherStory3.png

Lining up for the third Santa Ana wind event so far this season, the last one blew over semi trucks on the 15 and 215 Freeways and left power poles leaning in the north end of San Bernardino... in other words, having some kind of backup power system is more or less a necessity around here. My weather station has already recorded a gust to 21 mph and it's not even Thanksgiving yet, curious to see how this will ultimately unfold.
 

andyhb

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SPC now talking about a surging cold front with next Tuesday's setup...so I'd be skeptical of high-end tornado potential with it. Still bears watching as always, though.
If the 00z Euro/EPS is on the right track, this event could be significant and widespread.
 

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