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Severe Weather 2021

New Years is looking pretty spicy, I know it's still in the long term but the moisture return from the GoM is extremely impressive with eye opening instability and some favorable looking hodos from SE Texas across LA into S MS

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I think the New Year’s system is backpedaling across modeling….looks suppressed and a bit disjointed. Still lots of time to change but it’s definitely not the monster looks some model runs were a couple days ago.
 
Tuesday/Wednesday looks intriguing but I think quality moisture won’t be established as well as if the New Years system can somehow look a little more coherent.
 
Honestly I don't believe moisture quality or content will be a problem next week. While the models may have backed off and the system messy, the December 10th system was messy as well plus people sort of began to shrug it off until just prior to.
 
SPC has a D5 15% out. They say there's a good bit of uncertainty but there's enough confidence to at least put a 15% there for now.
 

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So basically we have next week right through the first week of January of potential severe weather/heavy rain threats.
 
I’m still rather…meh…on the midweek system. Looks like a lot of anticyclonic curvature with the ridging flexing as deeper troughing drops into the West. The New Year’s system has had flashes of potential the past few model cycles but that’s a cutoff over California trying to phase with an incoming trough…highly variable.
 
It's definitely more of a Saturday/Sunday threat, and not starting Friday (not even late, unless something significantly changes). There are still questions about overall timing and evolution of the wave... the potential for anticyclonic flow aloft out ahead of the front and how much that would impact things since it's subtle and there are other things present to try to make up for it. However, with that broad of a warm sector, deep low-level tropical moisture sitting to our south for days, and the broad-based but intense nature of the wave overall, it has the potential to become another large-scale significant event if everything lines up correctly. One thing is already clear though. Barring any radical changes, this one is aimed farther south than December 10-11 was.

By leaps, bounds, and back handsprings, I think the system next weekend has a much better chance at being something than the Wednesday ordeal does...
 
Fred Gossage said:
It's definitely more of a Saturday/Sunday threat, and not starting Friday (not even late, unless something significantly changes). There are still questions about overall timing and evolution of the wave... the potential for anticyclonic flow aloft out ahead of the front and how much that would impact things since it's subtle and there are other things present to try to make up for it. However, with that broad of a warm sector, deep low-level tropical moisture sitting to our south for days, and the broad-based but intense nature of the wave overall, it has the potential to become another large-scale significant event if everything lines up correctly. One thing is already clear though. Barring any radical changes, this one is aimed farther south than December 10-11 was.

By leaps, bounds, and back handsprings, I think the system next weekend has a much better chance at being something than the Wednesday ordeal does...
Click to expand...
Seeing areas like most ms into Alabama into parts of Tennessee likely Fred if things do line up kind what I’m thinking .
 
SPC is definitely watching the weekend system.
...D7-8/Sat-Sun - Portions of the Southeast...
The last several runs of the ECMWF and GFS show advancement of the
western CONUS upper-level trough which moves eastward across the
CONUS as a positively tilted trough. This would be higher amplitude
than any of the shortwave troughs which are forecast to cross the
Plains this week. An amplified mid-level trough interacting with a
broad warm sector with mid to upper 60s dewpoints could lead to a
significant severe-weather episode. There are still considerable
differences in the timing and amplitude of this advancing
upper-level trough, which can be seen comparing not only the
operational long-range model suite, but also the varying solutions
within the GEFS. However, despite these differences, virtually all
the members show the potential for a severe weather event sometime
on Saturday or Sunday. The lack of run-to-run model consistency and
timing differences are too great to include probabilities at this
time. However, if these uncertainties become more clear in the
coming days, probabilities may need to be added.
Click to expand...
 
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