Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

[AJS]

Decent hook forming on that storm. Velocity looks a bit meh, but if any storm right now we’re to drop something, it would be this one.

 

[US_Highway15]

That storm from Tinley Park to Kankakee IL is showing signs of weakening, at least part of the southern side.

 

[AJS]

That storm from Tinley Park to Kankakee IL is showing signs of weakening, at least part of the southern side.

The storm to the south near Bement, IL looks a lot more interesting.

 

[AJS]

The rotation is beginning to strengthen a little.

 

[lake.effect]

Amazing view of the rain column on the north Chicago supercell, taken from my apartment

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Temps/dew po

I understand in a way why the SPC wants to expand the watch, but I just don't see the appeal of these storms like they do, including the environment. I just feel like as they get further east, they'll die, but more likely I'll just eat my words. Perhaps I also have just become insanely numb to outflow dominant, non tornadic storms, like the usual here in northern IN.

Storm near Kankakee has a 50,000 foot echo top and is entering a much more favorable environment soon, it also looks like it's trying to break off the main line so we'll see if it gets its act together in the next hour or so.

 

[AJS]

Amazing view of the rain column on the north Chicago supercell, taken from my apartment

Man, I miss Chicago. Was a beautiful city to visit.

 

[AJS]

Temps/dew po


Storm near Kankakee has a 50,000 foot echo top and is entering a much more favorable environment soon, it also looks like it's trying to break off the main line so we'll see if it gets its act together in the next hour or so.

View attachment 41709View attachment 41710

How about the storm to the south near Bement?

 

[US_Highway15]

Temps/dew po


Storm near Kankakee has a 50,000 foot echo top and is entering a much more favorable environment soon, it also looks like it's trying to break off the main line so we'll see if it gets its act together in the next hour or so.

View attachment 41709View attachment 41710

This entire line is entering into a much more favorable environment, but yet I highly doubt it strengthens back up, which I do not understand why. Bizarre setups like today make me so happy that I'm not a meteorologist.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

I've traveled the US quite a lot and Chicago is my favorite city by far. Even proposed to my now Fiance there last December!

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

How about the storm to the south near Bement?

It's also entering a more favorable environment, and I was going to say its echo top was way lower, but in the last 5 minutes it's shot up to 53k ft

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

I wasn't fast enough getting the screenshot but there was a pretty big area of 34 m/s (76 mph) winds in downtown Chicago just now. This pic was the next radar scan.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Oh come on.

 

[AJS]

View attachment 41715
Oh come on.

You’ve got to be kidding me…

 

[AJS]

View attachment 41715
Oh come on.

I think a 15% hatched is definitely on the table for tomorrow. That is a nasty run.

 

[Ozonelayer]

I think a 15% hatched is definitely on the table for tomorrow. That is a nasty run.

Agreed. Semi discrete/discrete cells in a very favorable environment for intense tornadoes is a recipe for disaster. Honestly, a mid-high end 15% hatched is definitely in order is his trend keeps up.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

What am i looking at here over Lake Michigan? Is that inflow? Pretty huge area of 70+ mph winds in the blue. The dark blue is 80 mph.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

lil close up of 0z hrrr, o u c h not what we wanted to see

 

[Ozonelayer]

View attachment 41719
lil close up of 0z hrrr, o u c h not what we wanted to see

HRRR needs to relax with southern Illinois and western Kentucky. No matter the solution for Friday those areas are either hit with tornadic supercells or a possible derecho.

 

[atrainguy]

What am i looking at here over Lake Michigan? Is that inflow? Pretty huge area of 70+ mph winds in the blue. The dark blue is 80 mph.

View attachment 41718

That area is Tornado Warned now too. Radar Indicated.