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Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

notsoencrypted said:
Weather radio just alerted for a tornado watch here until 10PM.
Click to expand...
Was about to mention that.

"PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT
AND MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS,
INCLUDING LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. "
 
MD issued for LOT and ILX:


"PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WATCH TIMING
IS UNCERTAIN BUT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AN EASTWARD MOVING DRYLINE
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE (LOW 90S F TEMPERATURES AND MID 60S TO
LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS). WITH THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL ASCENT TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION, TIMING OF STORM INITIATION AS WELL AS STORM
COVERAGE ARE UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LACK OF MLCIN, A ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. 45-55 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS.
THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN FARTHER NORTH GIVEN
THE SLIGHTLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND MORE SIZABLE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS AT THE SURFACE. "
 
New AFD issued by LOT:

".MESOSCALE...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Watching a couple of areas where convection could initiate and
affect northern Illinois.

First, an area of enhanced cumulus along a pre-frontal
convergence axis from Jo Daviess County south to near KPIA then
KSPI. Starting to see some convection develop over southwest WI
within this axis, but thus far cumulus isn't terribly impressive
over Illinois. A bit of a complicated environment over our area
with an axis where low level moisture has mixed out over about the
western half of our CWA, resulting in stronger capping and a
dearth in cumulus. This more capped, better mixed out air mass
will probably spread into eastern portions of the CWA over the
next couple of hours. A second area we're watching is along the
dryline over eastern IA, where we're starting to see some more
robust cumulus development west of the Quad Cities. As large scale
ascent increases, should see convective initiation with either or
both of these features between 21-23z.

Supercells are likely to be the storm mode when convection
develops, with large to very large hail (2-3" in diameter) and
locally damaging winds the primary threat. Given the higher LCLs
and more mixed out dewpoints, the tornado threat looks to be quite
low in Illinois for the next couple/few hours. Early this
evening, toward 23-00z, should begin to see low level jet
developing resulting in increasingly strong low level shear. By
this point, storms should be moving into our eastern CWA, where
there could be a window of opportunity for a somewhat greater
tornado threat, in particular northwest Indiana and portions of
IL closer to the IN border."
 
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