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Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

UK_EF4 said:
The two tornado warned storms in S IL and E MO are currently somewhat 'front-loaded' in the sense they have very strong FFDs and the RFDs are brief, and not necessarily oriented in a way relative to storm motion that makes it easy for them to surge out ahead of the storm and initiate tornadogenesis. A such, I think the tornado threat on those storms will be brief/weak for now.

However there are intensifying per satellite/radar, and low level shear will only increase. Within 1-2 hours, maybe even sooner, there could very well be strong tornadoes with these.
Click to expand...
Maybe spoke too soon - both storms now have developed stronger RFDs! If these persist, decent chance of one or more EF2-3+ tornadoes.
 
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