Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

The two tornado warned storms in S IL and E MO are currently somewhat 'front-loaded' in the sense they have very strong FFDs and the RFDs are brief, and not necessarily oriented in a way relative to storm motion that makes it easy for them to surge out ahead of the storm and initiate tornadogenesis. A such, I think the tornado threat on those storms will be brief/weak for now.

However there are intensifying per satellite/radar, and low level shear will only increase. Within 1-2 hours, maybe even sooner, there could very well be strong tornadoes with these.
 
Storms are quite discrete at this point compared to what many of the models were suggesting at this stage. We might be trending towards a higher ceiling event now across the enhanced and moderate risks with multiple significant tornadoes possible.

The storms of greatest concern right now, to me, are the SE MO, S IL cells, as well as the lead cell nearing Hopkinsville, KY.

We also had a significant tornado near Worthington, IN that might pose a threat to Bloomington within the hour.
 
DanLarsen34 said:
Storms are quite discrete at this point compared to what many of the models were suggesting at this stage. We might be trending towards a higher ceiling event now across the enhanced and moderate risks with multiple significant tornadoes possible.

The storms of greatest concern right now, to me, are the SE MO, S IL cells, as well as the lead cell nearing Hopkinsville, KY.

We also had a significant tornado near Worthington, IN that might pose a threat to Bloomington within the hour.
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It certainly looks like things are beginning to ramp up. Once the LLJ kicks in, it could get intense.
 
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