Kds86z
Member
in a watch and hearing thunder.
-
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Severe Threat July 6-11
- Thread starter CheeselandSkies
- Start date
Kds86z
Member
- Thread starter
- #23
CheeselandSkies
Member
Enhanced upgrade for wind in the Northern Plains today. SPC is not sold on Friday despite recent GFS and NAM output.
KakashiHatake2000
Member
KakashiHatake2000
Member
i heard this was trending more linear
KakashiHatake2000
Member
let me see if i can get the entire thing instead of a cropped photo
KakashiHatake2000
Member
SPC AC 091927
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO
EASTERN IA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon
and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa.
...Central States...
Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the
most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon
and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of
the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through
the southern High Plains.
A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An
attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level
impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge
onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly
enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will
support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development
occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a
retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the
dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered
severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard.
Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region.
Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD,
mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front,
owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the
shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the
northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support
an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains,
with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment.
...East...
A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the
Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across
New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms
will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear
could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday
afternoon.
Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday
afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive
convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an
extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued.
..Grams.. 07/09/2025
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO
EASTERN IA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon
and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa.
...Central States...
Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the
most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon
and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of
the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through
the southern High Plains.
A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An
attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level
impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge
onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly
enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will
support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development
occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a
retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the
dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered
severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard.
Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region.
Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD,
mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front,
owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the
shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the
northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support
an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains,
with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment.
...East...
A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the
Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across
New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms
will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear
could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday
afternoon.
Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday
afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive
convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an
extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued.
..Grams.. 07/09/2025
joshoctober16
Member
this is in 4 hours , going to last from 2 hours to 7 hours , and conditions are good for hybrid tornadoes if storms form on the boundary
Sounding from the top one
KakashiHatake2000
Member
im seeing people say that friday and possibly tomorrow has tornado(es) written all over it and a possible t word outbreak with supercells unfortunately on wxtwitter with a mcv might possibly be hype you chasing cheeselandskies and grand poo bah
joshoctober16
Member
in one hour , CAPE , 3CAPE , lapse rates are insane , likely going to have a hybrid at this spot if there is a boundary (storms are forming in this spot now)
KakashiHatake2000
Member
oh wow dang
- Thread starter
- #32
CheeselandSkies
Member
Last edited:
KakashiHatake2000
Member
i guess not
Kds86z
Member
Barely a cloud in the sky in Iowa right now, but I did just notice two clouds moving perpendicular to each other, high up in the atmosphere, and they looked like they were separated by only a few hundred feet elevation. First time I can ever recall seeing that. Things are definitely spinny if any supercells decide to pop up.
Ozonelayer
Member
What's more likely? Hybrid tornadoes or regular supercellular tornadoes?
Latest HRRR run is showing a few isolated cells, with one particularly nasty looking one towards the Omaha metro.
KakashiHatake2000
Member
i saw one time while at night time there were clouds flying on by but not too terribly fast or at least what it looked like of course they are going pretty fast at the level of the atmosphere they were at but the moon was shining brightly and gave illumination to the clouds moving on by at the different levels of the atmosphere at the time but all of it was interesting none the less this was from december last year (2024)
Ozonelayer
Member
Bit of a cherrypicked screenshot but this is valid in about 4 hours from now. nasty outsome with some discrete supercells in central-eastern and even western Nebraska. Valid via the latest HRRR run.
Kds86z
Member
May get some tornadoes during this period after all.