Severe WX Severe Threat 8/9-8/10 2023

[Clancy]

What’s more impressive to me is the lower level wind shear later this evening for august . In this part country for sure

Definitely not something I'm accustomed to seeing in the Deep South in early August, that's for sure.

 

[Weatherphreak]

Does seem that summer CAPE gives a big boost to the STPs, though as we've seen sometimes big CAPE can overcome lesser dynamics.

That will be something to watch this afternoon for the first complex of storms since the better wind shear won’t be in play till tonight.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[JPWX]

Looks like SPC has made room for a Level 4 Moderate Risk upgrade. If so, it would be the 6th Moderate this Summer and the first Moderate in August for the above area since August 1st, 2003.

 

[Clancy]

12Z CAMs guidance is split on the location of the first round of convection, with HRRR (left) keeping it far north AL and TN and NAM 3km (right) and WRF bringing it into Central AL. Will be interesting to see how this evolves. Second round, in the form of an MCS, looks to affect most of us regardless, so everyone needs to be on the lookout for that one, which will happen well after dark.

 

[Clancy]

Also worth noting - the 12Z HREF guidance pops a 15% tornado contour on the 4-hour probability metric right over the triple-point of MS/AL/TN.

 

[JPWX]

Also worth noting - the 12Z HREF guidance pops a 15% tornado contour on the 4-hour probability metric right over the triple-point of MS/AL/TN.
View attachment 21316

O..... Wow!

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[Clancy]

1630Z update brings low-end tornado threat further Eastward.

 

[Clancy]

 

[warneagle]

Little bit of clearing now over SW Missouri and far NW Arkansas behind the MCS. Should get some time to recover at least but the question is just gonna be how big of a window we get from initiation until everything grows upscale. If it can stay discrete for more than a couple hours though that’s gonna be a big problem.

 

[JPWX]

First Tornado Warning of the day.

 

[StormStalker]

Rotating Wall cloud reported near Corinth, MS. TOR warned.

 

[South AL Wx]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued:

 

[Clancy]

Nasty looking couplet over Corinth.

 

[Clancy]

Nasty looking couplet over Corinth.

Gusted out but that's a stout mini squall line entering NW AL now.

 

[StormStalker]

It’ll be here pretty soon. Hope to get a few shots of the shelf cloud.

 

[Clancy]

10% got bigger in latest D1.

 

[Clancy]

18Z CAMs guidance is showing some rather favorable parameters across parts of Alabama after this current convection in the northern parts of the state move out ahead of the larger MCS likely arriving later tonight. From the HRRR at 04Z.

 

[StormStalker]

The lightning is pretty bad but not much wind.