Severe WX Severe Threat 8/9-8/10 2023

I listened in to the Huntsville NWS office give a briefing on tomorrow's weather this afternoon. Their consensus seemed to be this will be a high-uncertainly but also high-ceiling event, and specifically mentioned that the shear in place for tomorrow was something more often seen in Spring setups.
 
I'll be honest. The 18z 3km NAM and the last run of the HRRR I looked at (think it was the 18z) seemed a bit lackluster on storm coverage. Having said that, the HRRR and NAM future radars haven't been doing that great.
 
Brad Travis seems fairly concerned with tomorrow. He mentioned having to watch for supercells ahead of the line tomorrow afternoon. The threat around 1-2am may actually be worse based off what he said. Best case is the first round wipes out the atmosphere a good bit and the night time storms aren’t as bad. Lower level jet really gets going later on.
 
This was today's 12z CSU-MLP probability forecast for tomorrow. Sadly, the HREF hazard guidance is inoperable.

csu mlp.png
 
Most of the CAMs showing some nasty looking discrete to semi-discrete convection this afternoon over northern Alabama, followed by an MCS overnight.
 
10% hatched Tornado area for latest outlook

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TheSuckZone said:
10% hatched Tornado area for latest outlook

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First August 10% SIG hatch on record for that area. First 5% in August for North MS since 2012 (outside of a tropical system), and First 5% in August for North AL on record (outside of a tropical system).
 
I thought they gave a good explanation on why they held off on a higher risk category for the time being. Looks like a real bang-or-Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency setup.
 
Timhsv said:
Just ..wow...03Z THU right over Limestone County. Look at that STP of 10. This is August of coarse, but this is alarming somewhat


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Wonder if the STP is over doing it due to the high CAPE values we have this time of year? Brad mentioned in one of his streams the EHI seemed a bit over blown and said it was probably due to CAPE.
 
Weatherphreak said:
Wonder if the STP is over doing it due to the high CAPE values we have this time of year? Brad mentioned in one of his streams the EHI seemed a bit over blown and said it was probably due to CAPE.
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Does seem that summer CAPE gives a big boost to the STPs, though as we've seen sometimes big CAPE can overcome lesser dynamics.
 
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