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Severe Threat 8/10-13

It actually appears a tornado hit Columbus within that morning line.
 
The current differences between the HRRR and NAMNST for tomorrow morning's forecast are frustrating to say the least. Absolutely no similarities between the two scenarios. HRRR is showing a pretty gnarly wind threat for sunrise in central Iowa with copious amounts of high octane fuel out in front. Nam is showing a much larger area of instability right now with a cap that's supposed to burst around now and pop up gnarly MCS's everywhere and showers all night in central Iowa. Basically impossible to pull a forecast from this information.

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The current differences between the HRRR and NAMNST for tomorrow morning's forecast are frustrating to say the least. Absolutely no similarities between the two scenarios. HRRR is showing a pretty gnarly wind threat for sunrise in central Iowa with copious amounts of high octane fuel out in front. Nam is showing a much larger area of instability right now with a cap that's supposed to burst around now and pop up gnarly MCS's everywhere and showers all night in central Iowa. Basically impossible to pull a forecast from this information.

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Look out your window in the morning and you'll get a accurate forecast
 
85 degree dew points and 7500 SB CAPE

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90 mph winds, 4 inch hail and a probable tor in the middle if nowhere and lack of CC due to hail. I think that may verify my mesoscale tornado talk for last night. I'll consider that a nice cheque.
Kinda skeptical of the tornado but I will say these storms are some of the nastiest storms I think I've ever tracked. Derecho grade windspeeds + meteoric hail is insanity.
 
Kinda skeptical of the tornado but I will say these storms are some of the nastiest storms I think I've ever tracked. Derecho grade windspeeds + meteoric hail is insanity.
True, i am a bit skeptic too but the fact it favorably latched in a boundary and then proceeded to strengthen its couplet makes me think something was going on. The hook wrapped BIG TIME too around. There's no way to know but the processes leading up to it make it pretty fair why a tornado mightve happened
 
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