Severe WX Severe Threat 5/26-28, 2017

[stormcentral]

A series of storms will likely pose a risk for severe weather during this period.

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[tennessee storm chaser]

dont know why this threat isnt getting much attention... if outflow boundaries can form from overnight stuff friday night... saturday can be pretty vilotale across parts mid south... east ark west tn west ky.... maybe even far northern ms.... cape values nearing 5000 with dp pushing lo 70s... late saturday... already an enhanced risk for day 3... and todays model runs actually were bit more ominous...

 

[Xenesthis]

This event needs more attention

 

[KoD]

Looks like the instability is forecast to be significant/substantial, should be some monster cells with powerful wind gusts.

 

[stormcentral]

Day 2 moderate risk.

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[KoD]

Look at that CAPE, >6000

SREF has widespread 90-100% probabilities for >3000j/kg

 

[ARCC]

Hmm cape of 8000 with an LI of -17. Not too shabby. Very high threat of wind damage there.

 

[Argus]

Here we go, the classic MCS pattern is underway!

 

[Equus]

Could be a whopper of a derecho event and also a classic window smashing hail event. SPC suggests CAPE values for location/date are near record territory. Wouldn't be shocked at all if they upgrade to high at 60% wind.

 

[warneagle]

Yeah this could be a record-setting derecho event. The comparison to 26/5/1997 in the discussion was eye-catching. Thankfully I don't think we'll see a repeat of 27/5/1997, but still.

 

[KoD]

This early convection wasn't forecasted to be around as long as it has, nonetheless there's still ample potential in the southern part of the moderate risk area for a very severe mcs/possible derecho. The convection in Kansas may continue propagating and disturb that nice outflow boundary (visible on SW window goes-16) leading into Missouri, but I think that will do little to hamper the severity this afternoon.

 

[TornadoFan]

I spy an outflow boundary in NE Oklahoma.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Wow, that's an incredible storm hitting La Due, Missouri! Very wide swath of 90+ mph winds showing on super-res velocity.

 

[warneagle]

Strong rotation south of Jefferson City.

Clinton and Deepwater are about to get hammered. Wow.

 

[akt1985]

There is a severe thunderstorm watch from I-40 in Tennessee to the Ohio River. It looks like the cell near Cookeville, Tennessee may be trying to form a hook.

 

[Equus]

PDS SVR watch ahead of that bow in Missouri. Not an especially common watch type.

 

[bwalk]

Agree. A PDS SVR is very rare. I believe the criteria is 80+ mph gusts and 2" hail. As predicted, this event is unfolding as a derecho event.

 

[bwalk]

Though this is more of a wind event tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Decent STP for the watch area.

 

[Equus]

With such absurd CAPE over Oklahoma and several outflow boundaries being produced, not to mention the LLJ influence later, it won't take too much to make up for the mediocre SRH values. Could easily see something very significant if storm and boundary interaction occurs at just the right angle.

 

[Equus]

That said, SRH is actually up to 300 m2/s2 over N AR and at 200 near Tulsa, so most of the parameters are already in place for isolated tornadoes either way. I'm quite interested in E OK into AR and S MO tonight.