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Severe WX Severe Threat 5/26-28, 2017 (1 Viewer)


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dont know why this threat isnt getting much attention... if outflow boundaries can form from overnight stuff friday night... saturday can be pretty vilotale across parts mid south... east ark west tn west ky.... maybe even far northern ms.... cape values nearing 5000 with dp pushing lo 70s... late saturday... already an enhanced risk for day 3... and todays model runs actually were bit more ominous...
 

KoD

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Looks like the instability is forecast to be significant/substantial, should be some monster cells with powerful wind gusts.
 

KoD

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Look at that CAPE, >6000



SREF has widespread 90-100% probabilities for >3000j/kg
 

Equus

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Could be a whopper of a derecho event and also a classic window smashing hail event. SPC suggests CAPE values for location/date are near record territory. Wouldn't be shocked at all if they upgrade to high at 60% wind.
 

warneagle

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Yeah this could be a record-setting derecho event. The comparison to 26/5/1997 in the discussion was eye-catching. Thankfully I don't think we'll see a repeat of 27/5/1997, but still.
 

KoD

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This early convection wasn't forecasted to be around as long as it has, nonetheless there's still ample potential in the southern part of the moderate risk area for a very severe mcs/possible derecho. The convection in Kansas may continue propagating and disturb that nice outflow boundary (visible on SW window goes-16) leading into Missouri, but I think that will do little to hamper the severity this afternoon.
 

Taylor Campbell

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Wow, that's an incredible storm hitting La Due, Missouri! Very wide swath of 90+ mph winds showing on super-res velocity.
 

akt1985

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Madison, Alabama
There is a severe thunderstorm watch from I-40 in Tennessee to the Ohio River. It looks like the cell near Cookeville, Tennessee may be trying to form a hook.
 

bwalk

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Agree. A PDS SVR is very rare. I believe the criteria is 80+ mph gusts and 2" hail. As predicted, this event is unfolding as a derecho event.
 
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Equus

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With such absurd CAPE over Oklahoma and several outflow boundaries being produced, not to mention the LLJ influence later, it won't take too much to make up for the mediocre SRH values. Could easily see something very significant if storm and boundary interaction occurs at just the right angle.
 

Equus

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That said, SRH is actually up to 300 m2/s2 over N AR and at 200 near Tulsa, so most of the parameters are already in place for isolated tornadoes either way. I'm quite interested in E OK into AR and S MO tonight.
 

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