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Severe WX Severe threat 3/30-3/31

I hope and pray people in the path are aware of the weather this weekend.

From the NWS Memphis, TN, their Friday morning AFD (excerpt)....

"All LREF members have seen an marked increase to a 90% probability of > 1000 J/kg CAPE and bulk shear > 35kts, which supports higher confidence in severe weather on Sunday into Monday. The main difference between the ensemble members lies in timing between the ENS and GEFS/GEPS, where the ENS holds onto the instability later into the overnight hours. Nonetheless, model soundings suggest the potential for supercells within a multi-modal regime, supporting an all hazards threat. Convective activity will transition to a more linear mode as it moves near the Tennessee River early Monday morning as the front catches up. The cold front will push east of the Tennessee River by mid-morning on Monday, effectively ending the severe threat."
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Someone direct me to the April 2. / 3 system. Can’t find it some reason on my end lol
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talkweather.com

April 2-3 Severe Weather Event

There is model inconsistency regarding timing however the general consensus of a widespread severe event is evident at this point. All hazards are mentioned! We will need to get through Sundays event first to have a better grasp on this event. However, at this point it makes sense to get this...
talkweather.com talkweather.com
 
Todd said:
I hope and pray people in the path are aware of the weather this weekend.

From the NWS Memphis, TN, their Friday morning AFD (excerpt)....

"All LREF members have seen an marked increase to a 90% probability of > 1000 J/kg CAPE and bulk shear > 35kts, which supports higher confidence in severe weather on Sunday into Monday. The main difference between the ensemble members lies in timing between the ENS and GEFS/GEPS, where the ENS holds onto the instability later into the overnight hours. Nonetheless, model soundings suggest the potential for supercells within a multi-modal regime, supporting an all hazards threat. Convective activity will transition to a more linear mode as it moves near the Tennessee River early Monday morning as the front catches up. The cold front will push east of the Tennessee River by mid-morning on Monday, effectively ending the severe threat."
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In reading this, you get the feel that storms will remain supercells and/or multicellular as you won't get the line of storms until it's passed Mississippi. Meaning that there will be increased tornado risk on top of very large hail threat too.
 
JPWX said:
In reading this, you get the feel that storms will remain supercells and/or multicellular as you won't get the line of storms until it's passed Mississippi. Meaning that there will be increased tornado risk on top of very large hail threat too.
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I know Plains folks are accustomed to it, but large hail is absolutely terrifying the few times we've dealt with it. Sounds like you're getting shot at and all your windows are gonna explode.
 
OhOkayThen said:
CIPS
View attachment 37521
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full
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
See upgrade coming for parts east srksndas west
Tn , nw miss eventually
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Going to add on too the STP post above and reply to yours. Newest CIPS run. Really highlights that corridor. I'm expecting a significant severe event in this circled corridor. I don't know if you'll have a high risk. But I definetly see a moderate. Dangrous event coming up for that area. This cips picture is analogs exceeding 5 reports of severe weather. That's a VERY high percentgae.Screenshot_2025-03-28-10-51-04-89_f9ee0578fe1cc94de7482bd41accb329.jpg
 
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