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Severe WX Severe threat 3/30-3/31

JPWX said:
O I see my house and county in the 30% to 40% odds. JOY!
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The long track analogs are decent as well. Atleast over portions of North Alabama.

PRLONGTC01_gfsF084.png


seems there's a decent ceiling with this event but also a low floor. This is a excerpt from James spann afternoon blog. " A higher tornado threat could form after midnight Sunday night and into the pre-dawn hours Monday over North Alabama if discrete cells can form ahead of the main line, but that potential is very “iffy” based on the latest model trends. Once we get within 60 hours of the event we will be in range of the high resolution convection allowing models, giving us a much clearer picture."
 
Like has been alluded to several times already, this is an odd event, partly due to the discrete storm mode that's somewhat uncommon in the Deep South. This is absolutely an event that's a classic lose-lose for meteorologists -- many people may not get a drop of rain at all, so how do you convey a potentially high ceiling event where most people may see nothing but the stars overhead? Tricky.
 
ColdFront said:
@JPWX

I’m interested - have you ran the numbers for Monroe County prior to your birth and after? Not even 100% joking either
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I was born April 28th, 1994. From 1995 to current, Monroe County has had 31 tornadoes. From 1883 to 1989, Monroe County had 26 tornadoes. I don't have the percentages on that though. Absolutely great question though.
 
ColdFront said:
that’s a pretty insane frequency man. Thanks for checking that out
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It is. Also crazy how there's not a lot of difference in the total numbers either. Yes, the current total is higher than the prior 1994 total, but not by much. You're welcome!
 
wx_guy said:
Anyone else getting the feeling that this is one of those events that will feature 1-2 long track supercells and not much else?
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Those can usually yield pretty destructive results though. They have more breathing room and if they can cycle efficiently, even worse. I think of 12/10/2021, specifically the southern area. You had of course the quad state cell out by itself, and then the Dresden supercell.
 
ColdFront said:
Those can usually yield pretty destructive results though. They have more breathing room and if they can cycle efficiently, even worse. I think of 12/10/2021, specifically the southern area. You had of course the quad state cell out by itself, and then the Dresden supercell.
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Absolutely. I don't call such a situation a "Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency", but I know many will. We shouldn't discount the Monday afternoon threat either. It's a bit out of range to get a good look at it, but it looks like it could be potent as well.
 
wx_guy said:
Absolutely. I don't call such a situation a "Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency", but I know many will. We shouldn't discount the Monday afternoon threat either. It's a bit out of range to get a good look at it, but it looks like it could be potent as well.
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Haha, nice! The b word got replaced. Love it.
 
wx_guy said:
Absolutely. I don't call such a situation a "Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency", but I know many will. We shouldn't discount the Monday afternoon threat either. It's a bit out of range to get a good look at it, but it looks like it could be potent as well.
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Absolutely dude. I’m really surprised at people that would call something like that the B word when a lot of outbreaks through history were really just one or two cells going nuts (like Candlestick Park 1966)
 
ColdFront said:
Absolutely dude. I’m really surprised at people that would call something like that the B word when a lot of outbreaks through history were really just one or two cells going nuts (like Candlestick Park 1966)
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Crazy you say that, as Candlestick outbreak has shown up on multiple hodo analogs I have seen for this event
 

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Pretty noticeable downtrend in modelled instability on the GFS over the past several runs across the Southeast, which could substantially dampen chances for organized severe convection, especially in the absence of stronger helicity. Would bet money it flips again between now and day of, but something to watch since the intensity of the event may be substantially modulated by thermodynamics. On the contrary, the Euro hasn't changed much in terms of instability, and disagreement will likely persist.
NEXLABdpdt-12Z-20250331_GFSUS_con_mucape-20-100.gifNEXLABdpdt-12Z-20250331_ecmwfUS_con_mucape-20-100.gif
 
Clancy said:
Pretty noticeable downtrend in modelled instability on the GFS over the past several runs across the Southeast, which could substantially dampen chances for organized severe convection, especially in the absence of stronger helicity. Would bet money it flips again between now and day of, but something to watch since the intensity of the event may be substantially modulated by thermodynamics. On the contrary, the Euro hasn't changed much in terms of instability, and disagreement will likely persist.
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Yep and also we know that Global models underdo the CAPE almost always.
 
Clancy said:
Pretty noticeable downtrend in modelled instability on the GFS over the past several runs across the Southeast, which could substantially dampen chances for organized severe convection, especially in the absence of stronger helicity. Would bet money it flips again between now and day of, but something to watch since the intensity of the event may be substantially modulated by thermodynamics. On the contrary, the Euro hasn't changed much in terms of instability, and disagreement will likely persist.
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If there ever was a threat that would waltz down the street waving a Conditional banner, this is it. Makes for a very tricky forecast.
 
JPWX said:
Yep and also we know that Global models underdo the CAPE almost always.
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Yeah, I'm not gonna lean too hard on globals on this one. Also just a really tricky forecast, as @wx_guy stated. Not really a typical setup and a bevy of factors that require us to tilt some of the typical attitudes we approach Deep South events with. Not sure we've really had many in the Southeast since pre-2010, but Dixie-style isolated supercell outbreaks have the capacity to be sparse but particularly intense. Will be an interesting one to watch in any case, that's for sure.
 
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