Severe WX Severe threat 3/30-3/31

[Kds86z]

Much appreciated my man. It’s been quite a rough ride. Wanting to swim in college while pursuing your career in meteorology hasn’t been easy, but i’m thankfully almost done and i’ll be able to pursue my swimming and meteorology dreams!

Also - forgot to say… Appreciate you sharing with everyone your dreams about pursuing meteorology and all that. Inspiring! @AJS

 

[KevinH]

Absolutely not!

Lol sure, I'll grab a gif and attach.


*Almost Looks like a Nasty wind threat west of Alabama with some bow echos and then breaks up super cellular mainly in Alabama it seems. View attachment 37326

You know what… I always ask you to post graphics and always end up regretting when you do ROFL!!!

Going from a wind threat to discrete cells is kind of odd for these parts.

 

[KevinH]

I'm thinking by tomorrow morning on that, but yeah, no doubt it's coming

30% for which areas? TN, MS?

 

[JPWX]

30% for which areas? TN, MS?

I'm thinking Tennessee, MS, into Alabama. Probably clipping Eastern Louisiana and back into Arkansas

 

[KevinH]

I'm thinking Tennessee, MS, into Alabama. Probably clipping Eastern Louisiana and back into Arkansas

Alright….

sigh

 

[KevinH]

@Bulkshear If there is model agreement about Monday, you may want to think about adding Monday to the title of this thread and dropping Saturday (due to capping per the D4)

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

It's pretty much just straight up supercells.

It's pretty cool that you write the forecast discussions. I hope the upcoming severe weather doesn't cause too much damage.

 

[Psalm 148:8]

It's pretty cool that you write the forecast discussions. I hope the upcoming severe weather doesn't cause too much damage.

Grantham is extremely well at what he does! He’s been around here a long time and when I read BMX discussions and see that he wrote it, I take it with more than a grain of salt!!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Im drawing blanks on any events similar to this one from the past lol. Anybody have any events that are similar. It's not your typical potential tornado producing event you usually see here atleast in Alabama.

 

[Mrgolfman7070]

Im drawing blanks on any events similar to this one from the past lol. Anybody have any events that are similar. It's not your typical potential tornado producing event you usually see here atleast in Alabama.

I'm hoping we somehow get a moderate risk for the mid south. It's been a while in our area for bigtime action lol

 

[Bulkshear]

@Bulkshear If there is model agreement about Monday, you may want to think about adding Monday to the title of this thread and dropping Saturday (due to capping per the D4)

Done

 

[JPWX]

I'm hoping we somehow get a moderate risk for the mid south. It's been a while in our area for bigtime action lol

Well, I'm sure that can be arranged...... Insert evil laugh. LOL! (Kidding!)

 

[KevinH]

Done

Awesome!

Now we just have to wait and see.... everyone's LEAST favorite part lol

 

[KevinH]

I'm hoping we somehow get a moderate risk for the mid south. It's been a while in our area for bigtime action lol

March 16th has entered the chat lol

 

[Mrgolfman7070]

March 16th has entered the chat lol

View attachment 37329

Still have a few days to totally resolve things I suppose

 

[Clancy]

Taking a look at the 18Z Euro, it's starting to pick up on some more robust secondary synoptics, a little like what we saw on 3/15 (in a broad sense, not in terms of specific trough geometry). Taken verbatim, that'd imply a more significant severe risk on Monday. Only one run, but shows there's still a lot of question marks and plenty of room for this to shift either direction.

 

[OhOkayThen]

NWS Nashville states all ingredients look to be in place for an all hazards setup. Seems to be very little doubt in their discussion.

 

[AJS]

SPC maintains the large 15% area. Not sure if the update has happened yet though.

Oh and isn’t it lovely waking up to the sound of pouring rain outside you’re house?

 

[OhOkayThen]

View attachment 37335
SPC maintains the large 15% area. Not sure if the update has happened yet though.

Oh and isn’t it lovely waking up to the sound of pouring rain outside you’re house?

That's not the updated one yet. They just did D3, so probably another hour-ish until we have D4-8

 

[AJS]

That's not the updated one yet. They just did D3, so probably another hour-ish until we have D4-8

Ah okay. Good to know. I wasn’t sure if it was the updated one yet.