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Severe WX Severe Threat 25 March 2021

We definitely didn't Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency in the multiple strong long tracked tornado forecast, but again the N and W side of the risk didn't do much; modeling wasn't ideal on shortwave evolution and convective development
 
Recent HRRR runs have shown increased STP values in GA compared to earlier runs, and the reflectivity looks a bit more like a broken line of supercells vs a QLCS.

Yes! This look isn’t what we are used to in the Upstate. I will be up late tonight.


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One of the most important things about today's setup is that the CAMs Atmospheric Anti-Climax hard on the evolution of the shortwave and the deepening of the negatively-tilted trough. That limited the best conditions and shunted them further SE than expected. Definitely was an overperformance in regards to the further east you went, though.

There's a couple of cells I'm keeping my eye on, especially those cells in SW AL and near the triple point between TN/MS/AL, but it's not as ideal as it was earlier for the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham-Rome corridor as it was earlier. Seems like the most notable storm at this point is approaching Columbia, TN.
 
The tornado just north of Waynesboro, TN. Is confirmed by radar at the NWS. Also, media has confirmed visually. Moving in Summer town, and My. Pleasant.

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The tornado just north of Waynesboro, TN. Is confirmed by radar at the NWS. Also, media has confirmed visually. Moving in Summer town, and My. Pleasant.

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That thing is in a bit of a radar hole. Nashville beam at 6k ft on it.
 
Cells down around Tuscaloosa might be worth watching too. Not convinced it's fully over but certainly nothing locally is imminent.
 
New SPC update brings us down to an Enhanced.
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