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Severe WX Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

Very minimal severe weather reports today considering the high probabilities and strong wording on the Day 2 and 3 outlooks. SPC did catch on by Day 1 and walked back the probabilities some, although even the small moderate risk maintained on the initial outlook was probably too much.

Obviously a good thing from a life and property standpoint, but it sure seems like their track record with high-end forecasts is not real good for several years now. For how rarely the high risk has been used since 2014, none of them in recent years have produced particularly noteworthy events (the type for example, that would prompt several posts of photos and discussion in our "Significant Tornado Events" thread). The most significant tornadoes of any given year (such as Beauregard and Lawrence-Linwood in 2019) have generally occurred on "sneakier" days.

Of course severe local storms forecasting isn't easy, and I'm just an amateur observer. This isn't meant as an attack on the SPC, because the entire weather enterprise has generally been on board with significant events occurring on high-risk days, and there have certainly been significant tornadoes on the high risk days. For example, that one in January 2017 had the southern Georgia long-track EF3. However, it was also the only high risk ever issued encompassing parts of peninsular Florida, and that area was entirely devoid of high-end severe weather.

The last time a high risk area truly "verified" with no reservations, in my opinion was April 28, 2014. Even then, that risk area wasn't introduced until 20Z with the outbreak already underway. The last time a morning-issued high risk area was really raked top to bottom by tornadic supercells in classic outbreak fashion was November 17, 2013 (Washington, IL EF4 among others). Since the nearly perfect placement of the rare 45% tornado prob area on that day in 2011, the last two times it has been used have been particularly underwhelming.

Again, not trying to attack anybody, but more looking for thoughts on the reasons (both meteorological and possible issues with modeling, etc) why event after event after event for years now fails to hit its ceiling.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Very minimal severe weather reports today considering the high probabilities and strong wording on the Day 2 and 3 outlooks. SPC did catch on by Day 1 and walked back the probabilities some, although even the small moderate risk maintained on the initial outlook was probably too much.

Obviously a good thing from a life and property standpoint, but it sure seems like their track record with high-end forecasts is not real good for several years now. For how rarely the high risk has been used since 2014, none of them in recent years have produced particularly noteworthy events (the type for example, that would prompt several posts of photos and discussion in our "Significant Tornado Events" thread). The most significant tornadoes of any given year (such as Beauregard and Lawrence-Linwood in 2019) have generally occurred on "sneakier" days.

Of course severe local storms forecasting isn't easy, and I'm just an amateur observer. This isn't meant as an attack on the SPC, because the entire weather enterprise has generally been on board with significant events occurring on high-risk days, and there have certainly been significant tornadoes on the high risk days. For example, that one in January 2017 had the southern Georgia long-track EF3. However, it was also the only high risk ever issued encompassing parts of peninsular Florida, and that area was entirely devoid of high-end severe weather.

The last time a high risk area truly "verified" with no reservations, in my opinion was April 28, 2014. Even then, that risk area wasn't introduced until 20Z with the outbreak already underway. The last time a morning-issued high risk area was really raked top to bottom by tornadic supercells in classic outbreak fashion was November 17, 2013 (Washington, IL EF4 among others). Since the nearly perfect placement of the rare 45% tornado prob area on that day in 2011, the last two times it has been used have been particularly underwhelming.

Again, not trying to attack anybody, but more looking for thoughts on the reasons (both meteorological and possible issues with modeling, etc) why event after event after event for years now fails to hit its ceiling.
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It is reasonable to suggest that high risk days since 2014 were largely underperformed. Not including yesterday, the last 6 high risk days overall had 4 EF3 rating tornados. (12/16/2019 ENH day had 5 respectively) In view of the survey still ongoing, I would not speculate yesterday's significant tornados number.
I also have no mean to blame SPC. These days they sent a high risk all had relatively high ceiling. There should be some reasons behing the frequently underperformed high ceiling environment but I honestly have no idea about the reason.
Also, many violent tornados, actually none of the last 19 EF4 rating tornados(15 violent tornado days) occurred in high risk day. It just shows how difficult to forecast these most devastating tornados.
 
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I wouldn't say yesterday was a complete Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency. There were many large tornadoes in Mississippi and Alabama (especially Selma/Burnsville and Campbell) that have no rating yet. Today however, considering the SPC maintained a Moderate Risk for much of the day with only one tornado confirmed in Georgia, is definitely more fair to describe as a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency. Some of the storms today had rather impressive returns on radar (especially the last one that crossed into VA was BLANKETED with TOR warnings) though no word on any confirmed tornadoes in that region.

That being said, do keep in mind that it's not even April yet and we could have a very active season ahead of us.
 
pohnpei said:
It is reasonable to suggest that high risk days since 2014 were largely underperformed. Not including yesterday, the last 6 high risk days overall had 4 EF3 rating tornados. (12/16/2019 ENH day had 5 respectively) In view of the survey still ongoing, I would not speculate yesterday's significant tornados number.
I also have no mean to blame SPC. These days they sent a high risk all had relatively high ceiling. There should be some reasons behing the frequently underperformed high ceiling environment but I honestly have no idea about the reason.
Also, many violent tornados, actually none of the last 19 EF4 rating tornados(15 violent tornado days) occurred in high risk day. It just shows how difficult to forecast these most devastating tornados.
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The last time I believe was April 28, 2014 an EF4 tornado was in a high risk. I counted 22 EF4's not in high risk days since then but could have counted them wrong. Wasn't the last EF5 in Moore, OK on May 20, 2013 in the slight risk part of the moderate risk?
 
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Shakespeare 2016 said:
The last time I believe was April 28, 2014. I counted 22 EF4's not in high risk days since then but could have counted them wrong. Wasn't the last EF5 in Moore, OK on May 20, 2013 in the slight risk part of the moderate risk?
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Yeah, I recount it and seems 21 is the right call with 16 violent tornado days not the high risk day in this period.
 
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CheeselandSkies said:
Very minimal severe weather reports today considering the high probabilities and strong wording on the Day 2 and 3 outlooks. SPC did catch on by Day 1 and walked back the probabilities some, although even the small moderate risk maintained on the initial outlook was probably too much.

Obviously a good thing from a life and property standpoint, but it sure seems like their track record with high-end forecasts is not real good for several years now. For how rarely the high risk has been used since 2014, none of them in recent years have produced particularly noteworthy events (the type for example, that would prompt several posts of photos and discussion in our "Significant Tornado Events" thread). The most significant tornadoes of any given year (such as Beauregard and Lawrence-Linwood in 2019) have generally occurred on "sneakier" days.

Of course severe local storms forecasting isn't easy, and I'm just an amateur observer. This isn't meant as an attack on the SPC, because the entire weather enterprise has generally been on board with significant events occurring on high-risk days, and there have certainly been significant tornadoes on the high risk days. For example, that one in January 2017 had the southern Georgia long-track EF3. However, it was also the only high risk ever issued encompassing parts of peninsular Florida, and that area was entirely devoid of high-end severe weather.

The last time a high risk area truly "verified" with no reservations, in my opinion was April 28, 2014. Even then, that risk area wasn't introduced until 20Z with the outbreak already underway. The last time a morning-issued high risk area was really raked top to bottom by tornadic supercells in classic outbreak fashion was November 17, 2013 (Washington, IL EF4 among others). Since the nearly perfect placement of the rare 45% tornado prob area on that day in 2011, the last two times it has been used have been particularly underwhelming.

Again, not trying to attack anybody, but more looking for thoughts on the reasons (both meteorological and possible issues with modeling, etc) why event after event after event for years now fails to hit its ceiling.
Click to expand...
The people who forecast have nothing to apologize for, Things don't always line up. There are always a few second guessers who will be that guy who talks trash. They usually are uninformed people who love to find fault in others so they don't have to see their own.

I was in a discussion this morning and one of these guys made a snarky remark and I was actually pleasantly surprised by how many defended the meteorologists. They would rather be over warned than under warned.
 
Evan said:
Matt, it's awesome to see that your enthusiasm while chasing hasn't changed one bit! Couple of months ago I found the video of us in Hill City Kansas from back in 2007 with Brett. Watching it made me laugh especially your comments and me freaking out about getting too close.
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Yes, there is no gap in my enthusiasm haha. I haven't seen that video in years. You were a noob though. :P
 
Austin Dawg said:
The people who forecast have nothing to apologize for, Things don't always line up. There are always a few second guessers who will be that guy who talks trash. They usually are uninformed people who love to find fault in others so they don't have to see their own.

I was in a discussion this morning and one of these guys made a snarky remark and I was actually pleasantly surprised by how many defended the meteorologists. They would rather be over warned than under warned.
Click to expand...

I'm aware of that, nor do I expect things to always line up as predicted. We seem to be on a streak, though, of things never lining up as predicted, at least when it comes to these anticipated high-end events.
 
Austin Dawg said:
The people who forecast have nothing to apologize for, Things don't always line up. There are always a few second guessers who will be that guy who talks trash. They usually are uninformed people who love to find fault in others so they don't have to see their own.

I was in a discussion this morning and one of these guys made a snarky remark and I was actually pleasantly surprised by how many defended the meteorologists. They would rather be over warned than under warned.
Click to expand...
I guess it is more along the lines as why did 3/17/21 get a high risk but 4/12/20 did not at all. Some fears would be like what if there was only like an enhanced or moderate risk of severe weather was issued but it was performing almost similar to 4/27/11 and didn't get a high risk. It may seem unlikely but certainly not impossible. I guess it is the uncertainty of how a tornado outbreak is going to turn out and why do moderate risks seem to overperform more so than high risks. There is a lot of certainty even for meteorologists but I could never imagine something like a 4/27/11 getting a moderate risk than a high risk. Though like I said it is possible but I would think unlikely. Another thing sometimes you are expecting something to happen and it doesn't turn out right it can sometimes be easy to blame other people and get real angry at others. I am definitely guilty of that.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
I'm aware of that, nor do I expect things to always line up as predicted. We seem to be on a streak, though, of things never lining up as predicted, at least when it comes to these anticipated high-end events.
Click to expand...
Yeah it seems last high-end continuous outbreak to really reach its ceiling or even surpass it was Easter 2020 since 2014. Other days with high tornado reports such as 5/27/19 (91 tor reports, Dayton outbreak), 3/6/17 (89 tor reports, QLCS event mostly forgotten), 3/3/19 (Lee County EF4, 80 tor reports) among others, weren't expected to be high-end events at all. Very interesting trend here, though.
 
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