• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

At what point is the warm front supposed to surge north? I would love to be in the clear. Our temps have dropped and dp’s have fallen steadily over the last two hours.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
AL_ham_op said:
2 weeks.
Click to expand...

If you lack patience and need instant gratification then severe weather watching is probably not the best hobby choice.

Similarly, models "model" what the atmosphere may look like at a given time and place. I won't get into ensembles and operational models, etc -- but understand that slight differences in model variables, parameterization, and ingested upper air data/current conditions can produce a different solution for each slight change.

The bottom line is that humans can't predict very well where a warm front will move and when, or identify the amount of shear in a specific area. That's why we have models but they are not infallible and very much depend on complicated things not conducive to explaining here. If you don't already have a basic understanding of this then, again, this will be a very frustrating hobby for you and probably not a good fit.
 
Casie said:
Damage in Moundville, Clanton, Brookwood, Morris, Demopolis not to mention MS. Just what would it take for you to say something "touched down"? Maybe only if it directly hits your house?
Click to expand...
I haven't seen much damage other than some chicken houses and some trees and what has touched down has only touched down briefly.
 
Casie said:
Did you even read the High Risk statement? Dude...it's only late afternoon. SMDH.

By late afternoon and into early tonight, a low-level jet segment
will strengthen to at least 50-60 kt across MS/AL as the midlevel
trough approaches from the west, contributing to very strong
low-level shear (0-1 km SRH in excess of 300 m2/s2). Buoyancy will
be slow to decrease after sunset and with eastward extent based on
the prevalence of rather rich boundary-layer dew points, Very
favorable wind profiles (with 700-mb winds reaching 70-80 kt) will
maintain the threat for long-track, intense tornadoes with both
warm-sector supercells, as well as supercells within the broken band
near and ahead of the surface wind shift progressing east across MS
by early tonight. The strong tornado and significant damaging wind
threat while becoming more spatially confined with time, will likely
persist across parts of AL overnight and should spread into western
GA before 12Z.
Click to expand...

This is a very good reminder. I, & I believe many others on here have been almost totally focused on this current daytime wave to the point of somewhat forgetting about the next & final wave during the overnight hours. I'm thinking the final wave tonight has always been forecasted to be more severe than the activity that occurred today.

What remains to be seen is if the (debatable) underperformance of today's storms is indicative in any way of the expected performance of tonight's storms. I believe many posters on this thread would say, 'no', especially after reading the high-risk statement posted above.
 
Still chasing, reporting in. We caught the tornado in moundville. Pretty much went right over us. We got good video once we got behind it. It was intense but we are all good. Lost back window. Caught the one in Gardendale, it was rain wrapped. Few trees on houses. We are headed to childersburg storm now
 
Nearly 4" of rain now and temp fallen to 64°

Looks like the high certainly verified but not quite this far north
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top