• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

Always amazing how quickly things fall apart after looking so organized in all the models and having a high risk issued. But if the ingredients don't come together they don't come together.
 
AL_ham_op said:
Always amazing how quickly things fall apart after looking so organized in all the models and having a high risk issued. But if the ingredients don't come together they don't come together.
Click to expand...
Just what is falling apart???
 
...DISCUSSION...
A few changes have been made to the outlook for this issuance. The
first change is to move the High Risk area southward to include more
of south-central Mississippi and southwest Alabama. The 45 percent
contour has also been adjusted southward, to encompass the first
phase of the tornado outbreak ongoing in southwest Alabama. The
newest tornado outbreak model guidance places the greatest threat
along a corridor east-northeast from near Jackson, Mississippi
east-northeast along the Highway-80 corridor into the area to the
south of Tuscaloosa, Alabama.

Some discussion from updated day 1
 
Kory said:
Yeah don’t mind people’s property currently being damaged by ongoing tornadoes. Maybe the high risk was a bit much? Maybe the core of the threat was misplaced? But, these people posting endlessly about busting and falling apart...yeah there’s no bonus points for that.
Click to expand...
Honestly I would be very happy if nothing else produces. This has been a crappy day if you live in the area. Two strong circulations just passed miles of me. It’s been very stressful. I love weather and am a huge nerd with it but I would be ecstatic if no other warnings happen.
 
AL_ham_op said:
I mean, aside from broad rotation that looks good on radar, not much is really going on given how high of a risk there was for today.
Click to expand...
Did you even read the High Risk statement? Dude...it's only late afternoon. SMDH.

By late afternoon and into early tonight, a low-level jet segment
will strengthen to at least 50-60 kt across MS/AL as the midlevel
trough approaches from the west, contributing to very strong
low-level shear (0-1 km SRH in excess of 300 m2/s2). Buoyancy will
be slow to decrease after sunset and with eastward extent based on
the prevalence of rather rich boundary-layer dew points, Very
favorable wind profiles (with 700-mb winds reaching 70-80 kt) will
maintain the threat for long-track, intense tornadoes with both
warm-sector supercells, as well as supercells within the broken band
near and ahead of the surface wind shift progressing east across MS
by early tonight. The strong tornado and significant damaging wind
threat while becoming more spatially confined with time, will likely
persist across parts of AL overnight and should spread into western
GA before 12Z.
 
Latest run of the HRRR still has a variety of nasty looking stuff moving through overnight. Definitely wouldn't be writing anything off right now, not to mention the fact that we still have multiple tornado warnings in effect.
1616019618680.png
 
What happened in north Alabama was I think a combination of a stronger than expected low level jet overrunning the CAD boundary. What should’ve been little scattered convection and a warm front blasting north was reinforced by warm air advection fed complex on the other side of the boundary.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top