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Severe WX Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

18Z hi-res NAM wants to keep things out of NE Alabama and all of North Georgia (even as the night progresses). I'm certainly not smart enough to figure out where/why this may be right or wrong, so I'm curious what those on here think about it.
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Bamamuscle said:


I know folks hate the comparisons but... The same thing happened on 4/27. I remember they delayed schools because of bad storms that morning.. kids got to school and they released them an hour later. I had to pull over at a Jacks and get in the walk-in cooler with my daughter. Got caught in a bad storm after I picked her up. It was two distinct waves of severe storms before the bad stuff that evening. Not liking this at all.


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There was a morning system and then the warm sector spawned the violent tornadoes. I don't think I have heard the guys here say that the boxes are all checked for one of those events, but it may be more like other events with fewer high end twisters.
 
The pattern of warm front storms --> warm sector storms --> cold front storms isn't really unusual. April 27th was a bit different because it was a QLCS with embedded supercell structures (which had originated the night before) rather than the typical storms associated with a warm front. There were actually two rounds of storms that morning (the second round was still ongoing in TN and northern AL when the warm sector supercells kicked off in Mississippi around noon).
 
I think 4/27 has wrecked the idea of what a normal high end outbreak is like. 4/28/14 and Easter Sunday last year were very large high end outbreaks overall and they're an order of magnitude less intense than 4/27/11. Sure we'll have another 4/27-esque event one day in the future but people expecting a dozen violent tornadoes are going to feel that, say, the three we had last April 12 was an underperforming event overall because it didn't match 4/27. Super Outbreaks are rare anomalies.
 
Equus said:
I think 4/27 has wrecked the idea of what a normal high end outbreak is like. 4/28/14 and Easter Sunday last year were very large high end outbreaks overall and they're an order of magnitude less intense than 4/27/11. Sure we'll have another 4/27-esque event one day in the future but people expecting a dozen violent tornadoes are going to feel that, say, the three we had last April 12 was an underperforming event overall because it didn't match 4/27. Super Outbreaks are rare anomalies.
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It also makes us forget events like 4/15/11.
 
Equus said:
I think 4/27 has wrecked the idea of what a normal high end outbreak is like. 4/28/14 and Easter Sunday last year were very large high end outbreaks overall and they're an order of magnitude less intense than 4/27/11. Sure we'll have another 4/27-esque event one day in the future but people expecting a dozen violent tornadoes are going to feel that, say, the three we had last April 12 was an underperforming event overall because it didn't match 4/27. Super Outbreaks are rare anomalies.
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Yep, I was guilty of thinking the outbreak last Easter underperformed when in reality there were many many tornadoes.
 
David in SW Blount said:
Yep, I was guilty of thinking the outbreak last Easter underperformed when in reality there were many many tornadoes.
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Number 3 in U.S. history in terms of total overall numbers, as a matter of fact. A lot of people don't realize just how large-scale that thing was.
 
David in SW Blount said:
Yep, I was guilty of thinking the outbreak last Easter underperformed when in reality there were many many tornadoes.
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None of the twisters on 4/27 were as large as the 2.25 mile-wide EF4 that hit parts of Mississippi on Easter Sunday last year. I know size is irrelevant for the EF rating but what made that tornado get so huge like that.
 
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Fred Gossage said:
Number 3 in U.S. history in terms of total overall numbers, as a matter of fact. A lot of people don't realize just how large-scale that thing was.
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It gets forgotten for the average person because of the incredible event later that month or else it might be the event everyone thinks of immediately when you mention a possible tornado event
 
Austin Dawg said:
It gets forgotten for the average person because of the incredible event later that month or else it might be the event everyone thinks of immediately when you mention a possible tornado event
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Oh, I was talking about the Easter event last year. That thing ended up ranking #3 in U.S. history, but it gets overlooked as being as widespread as it was because there were only a few violent tornadoes.
 
ARCC said:
Yup.

It is easy to forget that one had a good bit higher ceiling.
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Yeah, if it weren't for...you know, the whole rest of 2011...we'd probably talk about that one in the same way we do 4/28/14 and Easter 2020. It was a pretty big deal, but it had the "misfortune" of happening two weeks before the Super Outbreak.
 
4/15/11 joins 11/24/01 in the unfortunate club of "outbreaks which were the biggest on record in AL at the time of occurrence but are always forgotten anyway"
 
Synoptically it almost wants to split the difference between 4/15/11 and 4/07/06. Not as negative tilt as 2011 and not positive tilt like 2006.
 

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