I'm not really sure how climate change applies to this particular event-based thread. It most certainly shouldn't be used as reasoning when formulating a forecast or expectations for this event.
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Think he was referring to overall , climate change seems to increase the violent tornado activity last couple decades or so... wasn’t referring to this particular threat pretty sure .I'm not really sure how climate change applies to this particular event-based thread. It most certainly shouldn't be used as reasoning when formulating a forecast or expectations for this event.
Think he was referring to overall , climate change seems to increase the violent tornado activity last couple decades or so... wasn’t referring to this particular threat pretty sure .
When I looked at everything today, I kept thinking to myself the winds will likely be stronger as we have see the models catchup.Expect a trend toward a stronger low-level jet as we get closer. This is part of that isallobaric response I've talked about that the GFS and NAM have issues with, and it's been a long-standing issue for more than a decade. But even the 00z NAM tonight, which can often struggle to close off a surface low 72-84 hrs out, has a 993mb sfc low at 12z Wednesday and a much more organized 850-925mb jet response. Matt and I have been looking at other synoptic analogs that had an almost identical 850mb cyclone structure and height gradient structure in the warm sector to what is modeled, and all of them had a 50-60 kt 850mb jet. Even the GFS ensembles continue to significantly intensify 850mb winds over the warm sector with each run as we get closer. The NAM, which struggles with the same issues as the GFS, also has a solid backing of the surface winds through the whole warm sector of SE to SSE versus the due S on the GFS on Wednesday morning. The fact that the NAM often struggles with the same issues but has a much stronger low-level jet response and backed low-level winds tells me everything I need to know.
Expect a trend toward a stronger low-level jet as we get closer. This is part of that isallobaric response I've talked about that the GFS and NAM have issues with, and it's been a long-standing issue for more than a decade. But even the 00z NAM tonight, which can often struggle to close off a surface low 72-84 hrs out, has a
That's a big-league EML that will be just to our southwest Wednesday morning. There's no reason for it to just vanish. The EML often trends more significantly with these systems as we get closer. We're in a background state that favors large-scale EML advection. I expect a somewhat stronger cap in the morning. There have been many of these events where the forecast soundings have shown the warm sector completely uncapped in the morning until we get within a day or two of the event. Just stepping back away from the face value stuff and looking at the mid-level source regions and the trajectories involved, there should be a synoptic-scale cap that spreads in behind the warm front.
The CIPS analogs are really painting an increasing, dangerous threat at 5 days out.
This bears some striking similarities to 4/14/11 at 500 mb.
Very interesting Andy. If I remember correctly, there were like a dozen EF3's with that outbreak.This bears some striking similarities to 4/14/11 at 500 mb.