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Severe Thread: 5/13-17

The aftermath in Houston right now legitimately reminds me of Hurricane Ike there. That was no ordinary damaging wind event that basically bullseyed the metro.
 
andyhb said:
The aftermath in Houston right now legitimately reminds me of Hurricane Ike there. That was no ordinary damaging wind event that basically bullseyed the metro.
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Interesting that you mention that — I just saw this:



Estimated to have 1/3rd of the county without power…with temps supposed to spike this weekend, I hope it can be restored quickly or cooling centers opened up in spaces that do have power.
 
JPWX said:
Yeah, MCS or not, I wouldn't write off the areas away from the Gulf Coast tomorrow.
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Really befuddling how bookended models have been with regard to convective evolution, they've been showing either a nothing-burger for anywhere away from the Gulf Coast or a potentially nasty setup across much of the South and going from one to the other almost every run.
 
Clancy said:
Really befuddling how bookended models have been with regard to convective evolution, they've been showing either a nothing-burger for anywhere away from the Gulf Coast or a potentially nasty setup across much of the South and going from one to the other almost every run.
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My guess is that Nebraska will have another 260mph EF1
 
andyhb said:
The aftermath in Houston right now legitimately reminds me of Hurricane Ike there. That was no ordinary damaging wind event that basically bullseyed the metro.
Click to expand...
A friend from my golf group lives down there now and said his family told him it sounded like a tornado and the ground was shaking etc. Thankfully they’re okay
 
Tomorrow's threat is one of those that can catch you off guard at last minute
 
KevinH said:
Not a fan of that… interested to see what happens in AL all day
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Reason I say that is because I've seen/witnessed too many events that don't look like much turn into a bigger deal the day of.
 
13z update hints at (some) possibility of later upgrade to ENH in the South today, if uncertainties can be removed:

Thunderstorms in the expanding warm sector, and along the front,
should pose a risk for a few tornadoes, along with large hail and
severe gusts, this afternoon into tonight. The main uncertainty at
this time is coverage, and by which preferred mechanism the greatest
lift will occur (related concepts). Warm-frontal passage and
diurnal heating will combine to destabilize the airmass inland from
southwest-northeast today, with upper 60s to mid 70s F surface
dewpoints. This will yield MLCAPE in the 2000-3500 J/kg range,
beneath 45-60 kt effective-shear magnitudes, once surface-based
parcels are attained. A more-focused area of severe potential may
develop within the lengthy corridor outlooked, particularly near the
inland-shifting baroclinic zone where low-level shear should be
maximized. However, mesoscale uncertainties are still too large to
introduce greater unconditional severe probabilities at this time.
 
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