Severe Thread: 5/13-17

[DetectiveWX]

Looks like the second week of May could be rough across the South.

 

[JBishopwx]

Tonight:

Monday:

Tuesday:

 

[Clancy]

00Z CAMs came in divided on evolution for Tuesday, but hinted at the possibility of coastal convection moving out of the way by afternoon. NAM, for example, came in rather troublesome for parts of AL and GA, developing discrete convection Tuesday afternoon with UH streaks.

 

[jmills]

I generally don’t agree with the slight risk for tomorrow being as far north as it is across Alabama. With the precipitation shield across south Alabama, I don’t see the warm sector making it nearly that far north.

 

[Clancy]

Seems that coastal convection will not be much of a limiting factor for Tuesday. However, what the convective evolution looks like during the afternoon still seems unclear, with CAMs remaining undecided on what it ends up looking like, and how intense it will be. Excerpt from D2.

The early morning convection is not expected to overturn the
airmass, with mid to upper 60s likely remain in place ahead of the
approaching cold front. General expectation is for the airmass
across the TN Valley and much of the Southeast to destabilize by the
early afternoon amid modest heating of this moist environment.
Convergence along the front will be weak, due to veering within the
warm sector, and large-scale ascent will be modest, but isolated to
widely scattered still appears probable along and ahead of the front
during the afternoon. A few stronger mulitcells capable of hail
and/or damaging wind gusts are possible.

The Gulf Coast looks to get roughed up by multiple rounds of damaging winds and potentially tornadoes both today and tomorrow, so the Panhandle and the Mobile area should be on their toes.

 

[wx_guy]

Low Level Lapse Rates are still in the 4.5 - 5.5 range, though, so it might mitigate significant severe weather today at least.

 

[Clancy]

Low Level Lapse Rates are still in the 4.5 - 5.5 range, though, so it might mitigate significant severe weather today at least.

Yeah, I think winds and floods will be the main story for today.

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Mobile AL
852 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Mobile County in southwestern Alabama... Central Baldwin County in southwestern Alabama... Southeastern Washington County in southwestern Alabama... Southwestern Escambia County in south central Alabama... Southern Clarke County in southwestern Alabama... Northwestern Escambia County in northwestern Florida...

* Until 930 AM CDT.

* At 850 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 3 miles east of Calvert to 3 miles northwest of Satsuma to 3 miles west of I65 And AL 158 to 3 miles west of Semmes, moving east at 60 mph.

THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN MOBILE COUNTY

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

* Locations impacted include... Midtown Mobile, Downtown Mobile, Prichard, Daphne, Saraland, Bay Minette, Atmore, Chickasaw, Satsuma, Spanish Fort, Creola, Loxley, Chunchula, Stockton, McCullough, Stapleton, Gulfcrest, Axis, Mount Vernon, and Calvert.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage.

&&

TIME...MOT...LOC 1350Z 268DEG 53KT 3115 8794 3089 8809 3078 8817 3077
8832

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH

$$

 

[wx_guy]

12z Observed Sounding out of LIX. Wondering if, even with mediocre LLLR, some tornadoes might spin up. 350-450 SRH, over 2k CAPE, almost 100 3CAPE, about 40 knots of storm relative winds at the surface, steep theta e decrease through the atmosphere, very curved low level hodographs....maybe???

 

[Clancy]

12z Observed Sounding out of LIX. Wondering if, even with mediocre LLLR, some tornadoes might spin up. 350-450 SRH, over 2k CAPE, almost 100 3CAPE, about 40 knots of storm relative winds at the surface, steep theta e decrease through the atmosphere, very curved low level hodographs....maybe???


View attachment 27126

Would be very on-brand for the Gulf Coast.

 

[warneagle]

Early morning PDS SVR in Texas

 

[Clancy]

Dangerous MCS in progress across the Gulf Coast this morning.

 

[Clancy]

Some transient mesocyclones have developed at the apex of this complex's bow. Doubt anything will come of it but I've learned to always expect the unexpected with storms in this area of the South.

 

[Clancy]

 

[Clancy]

TOR now for that circulation near Milton.

 

[wx_guy]

The SVR has been tagged as "Extremely Dangerous Situation"

 

[wx_guy]

Power is out again. City closed all state offices at noon. The NWS apparently conveyed some concern about the power grid if the current MCS moving through the Panhandle maintains its strength. Will have to watch! Power outage.us ticked up from 15% out to about 17% out with this small line that just came through.

On radar, it looks like a very narrow corridor of damaging winds in the FL Panhandle. Let’s see if it holds together.

 

[Clancy]

Power is out again. City closed all state offices at noon. The NWS apparently conveyed some concern about the power grid if the current MCS moving through the Panhandle maintains its strength. Will have to watch! Power outage.us ticked up from 15% out to about 17% out with this small line that just came through.

On radar, it looks like a very narrow corridor of damaging winds in the FL Panhandle. Let’s see if it holds together.

Modelling has the line holding and observed SBCAPE has been gradually rising northward. Stay safe out there.

 

[wx_guy]

Modelling has the line holding and observed SBCAPE has been gradually rising northward. Stay safe out there.

Yuck! Thanks for the update. It’s hard to check on my phone lol