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Severe WX Severe Storm Threat 2/24-2/25 2017 Enhanced Risk Wind, Hail & Tornado Threats.

stormcentral

stormcentral

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The storm prediction center has issued enhanced slight marginal risks day 3.

It appears the trough will bring threats for severe weather along and ahead of a strong cold front that will be moving by. #uswx
 
Could be a rather widespread damaging wind risk, with hail as a main secondary risk. I don't see a widespread tornado event, but in situations like this, you can NEVER rule out a particular storm mode. But dang, that's some crazy lapse rates as very cold mid level temps overspread the warm sector, which is why I think upper 50s to 60 degree dews could work. Deep layer shear will favor organized storms and upscale growth/organization into a squall line, but initialization of supercells/storm clusters, prior to merging, COULD feature a few rotating supercells, especially across IN/KY.
 
Kory said:
Could be a rather widespread damaging wind risk, with hail as a main secondary risk. I don't see a widespread tornado event, but in situations like this, you can NEVER rule out a particular storm mode. But dang, that's some crazy lapse rates as very cold mid level temps overspread the warm sector, which is why I think upper 50s to 60 degree dews could work. Deep layer shear will favor organized storms and upscale growth/organization into a squall line, but initialization of supercells/storm clusters, prior to merging, COULD feature a few rotating supercells, especially across IN/KY.
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Agree.....won't be surprised if a couple strong/ significant tornadoes occur in Indiana/ Kentucky/ NW Ohio.
 
PerryW said:
Agree.....won't be surprised if a couple strong/ significant tornadoes occur in Indiana/ Kentucky/ NW Ohio.
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Relative noob here (first year met student) so please forgive my ignorance. What makes you so sure? It's looking to me like it's going to be mainly a squall line event with only a few supercells fairly early on.
 
SilentShadow87 said:
Relative noob here (first year met student) so please forgive my ignorance. What makes you so sure? It's looking to me like it's going to be mainly a squall line event with only a few supercells fairly early on.
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Just past experience with similar storm systems. Forecast parameters for intense tornadoes late Friday into the overnight hours aren't overwhelming, but are high enough to warrant concern; especially from northern Indiana into southern Michigan and northwestern Ohio.
 
PerryW said:
Just past experience with similar storm systems. Forecast parameters for intense tornadoes late Friday into the overnight hours aren't overwhelming, but are high enough to warrant concern; especially from northern Indiana into southern Michigan and northwestern Ohio.
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Thanks for that.
Regardless of how the rest of the season turns out these first two months have been absolutely insane, with the most active January in 18 years and a fairly active February.
 
SilentShadow87 said:
Thanks for that.
Regardless of how the rest of the season turns out these first two months have been absolutely insane, with the most active January in 18 years and a fairly active February.
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Yes......this near record-breaking warm start to 2017 (in Georgia) has really ramped up the tornado season early.
 
Some models are latching onto the idea of a pre-frontal trough across IN/KY that will locally back winds and pool dew points (as evidenced by the strip of blue). This could enhance the tornado risk with supercells that fire along the pre-frontal trough. Just something to keep in mind when looking at meso-analysis during the event tomorrow.

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Looks like model progs for a pre-frontal trough are not coming to fruition, which means the tornado threat is likely very low. Lots of SW to SSW surface winds and lack of moisture pooling (such as the pre-frontal trough), will likely preclude a tornado threat (although you can NEVER rule one out). Mid level lapse rates on the order of 8.0-9.0 C/KM will likely ensure a hail threat and stronger 700-850mb winds will mean damaging winds if those can make their way to the surface in a downdraft.
 
Had a few drops of rain and a rumble of thunder and that was about it here. Winds have shifted around to the northwest.
 
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