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Severe Risk/Excessive Heat 7/27-7/29/2026

Here’s a post from a local news outlet showing the damage in Menasha.

I attached a few pics below of the worst damage. I’ll be really curious to know why this one specific house was almost completely leveled. Contextual damage suggests some kind of structural flaw to me. The rest of the damage looks more like EF-1 to EF-2.
 

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I’m expecting an EF3 rating for the Menasha tornado. Definitely strong, but I haven’t seen anything that is solidly across the violent threshold. The tree damage is a good clue too. Definitely plenty of stripped trees, including some stubbing, but only low-end debarking. None of the severely debarked trees that you would see after a genuinely violent tornado in a populated area.
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buckeye05 said:
I’m expecting an EF3 rating for the Menasha tornado. Definitely strong, but I haven’t seen anything that is solidly across the violent threshold. The tree damage is a good clue too. Definitely plenty of stripped trees, including some stubbing, but only low-end debarking. None of the severely debarked trees that you would see after a genuinely violent tornado in a populated area.
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I think it may end up there as well. Preliminary rating from NWS Green Bay is EF-2, but I suspect we may get there upon further review. Like I mentioned earlier, I’ll be very curious to see how well built the nearly leveled home was.

Also, have not heard reports of any fatalities either which is very good if it holds. I really feared with how quickly this thing came together, it impacting multiple highways/freeway routes, and looking intense/violent on radar that we were going to see that.
 
Here’s some additional damage photos I just came across via Civic Media. Worth noting that the water treatment plant was hit and that people are being advised to conserve water as a result.
 

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Just caught this video from Reed Timmer looking at the damage and note in this video that there’s a very large tree that appears to have been completely uprooted that’s sitting in the middle of the road. There’s also a collapsed house.
 
It’s going to miserable at Panama City Beach tomorrow. Not only is there an Excessive Heat Warning for that location, there is also a high rip current risk for that stretch of coast, making it dangerous to cool off in the Gulf.
 
At this point, this has been one of the more active years for the upper midwest in recent memory, very weird and honestly with second season on the table I kinda don't expect that to change going into the second half of the year.
 
eep said:
At this point, this has been one of the more active years for the upper midwest in recent memory, very weird and honestly with second season on the table I kinda don't expect that to change going into the second half of the year.
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Models have the current upper-air pattern of ridge in the west and troughing in the midwest-mid atlantic-northeast sticking around for the forseeable future, so there's certainly good reason to expect further activity up there.
 
DanLarsen34 said:
I think it may end up there as well. Preliminary rating from NWS Green Bay is EF-2, but I suspect we may get there upon further review. Like I mentioned earlier, I’ll be very curious to see how well built the nearly leveled home was.

Also, have not heard reports of any fatalities either which is very good if it holds. I really feared with how quickly this thing came together, it impacting multiple highways/freeway routes, and looking intense/violent on radar that we were going to see that.
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I really do hope they upgrade it. When you have a leveled home, even just one, there better be really good reason to not go with at least low-end EF3. Technically, the scale’s lower bound of 142 MPH for leveled houses is set so that surveyors aren’t “allowed” go below EF3 when dealing with flattened homes. But we all know how that goes.
 
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buckeye05 said:
I really do hope they upgrade it. When you have a leveled home, even just one, there better be really good reason to not go with at least low-end EF3. Technically, the scale’s lower bound of 142 MPH for leveled houses is set so that surveyors aren’t “allowed” go below EF3 when dealing with flattened homes. But we all know how that goes.
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Kds86z said:
Huh? Yes of course I did. Just was posting this I saw. Wasn’t saying anyone was right or wrong.
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I mean it’s not a huge deal or anything, but you posted in direct reply to my comment, which implies direct relevance to the topic being discussed. If it’s just “something you saw”, and is more tangential or doesn’t really add onto or refute a previous point, it’s best to post it as a stand alone comment. That’s all.
 
buckeye05 said:
I mean it’s not a huge deal or anything, but you posted in direct reply to my comment, which implies direct relevance to the topic being discussed. If it’s just “something you saw”, and is more tangential or doesn’t really add onto or refute a previous point, it’s best to post it as a stand alone comment. That’s all.
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Yeah my bad. That’s my mistake.
 
New day 1

THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA, WHERE MLCAPE COULD PEAK AROUND 3000cJ/KG. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGEST THAT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE, SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION, 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY IS FORECAST AND TO REACH NEAR 225 M2/S2 BY MID AFTERNOON, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BEING AMPLIFIED BY THE DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS. SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS COULD EXTEND FURTHER WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND
FAR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
 

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buckeye05 said:
I really do hope they upgrade it. When you have a leveled home, even just one, there better be really good reason to not go with at least low-end EF3. Technically, the scale’s lower bound of 142 MPH for leveled houses is set so that surveyors aren’t “allowed” go below EF3 when dealing with flattened homes. But we all know how that goes.
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Looks like we both got our wish. Looks like NWS Green Bay just upgraded to EF-3 at 140 MPH.
 
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