The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 5, 6 continues.
SUMMARY...Corridor of greatest tornado potential the next few hours
will extend from far east-central MS into northwest/west-central AL
and far south-central TN.
DISCUSSION...Radar trends over the last 30 minutes or so have
indicated some strengthening in mid and low level storm rotation
both in semi-discrete convection to the northwest of Meridian MS and
further north associated with bowing line segment in Monroe County
MS. Additional semi-discrete storms moving into far south-central TN
also continue to show signs of rotation. Overall, storms appear to
be struggling due to a weakness in storm relative flow in the low to
mid levels. Additionally, stronger forcing for ascent remains well
west/northwest of the region and height falls have generally been
rather weak. All of these factors have impacted organization and
longevity of intense convection.
Convection currently moving out of eastern MS into western AL and
south-central TN will encounter the best environment of the day,
with regional VWP data indicating increased flow through the lowest
3km over over the last 30-60 min. Weak backed low level flow has
also been noted in this narrow corridor as well. This should help to
maximize low level shear in axis of greatest heating and
instability. As such, the greatest severe threat, and tornado
potential, will exit the next few hours, mainly across west-central
into northwest AL and adjacent south-central TN. In fact, recent
LSR from MEM confirmed a tornado had been sighted in Alcorn County.