Kds86z
Member
Storm near Carrizo..
-
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Severe all hazards threat for today wed 10/21 and tomorrow thurs 10/22 2026
- Thread starter KakashiHatake2000
- Start date
Kds86z
Member
- Thread starter
- #45
KakashiHatake2000
Member
- Thread starter
- #46
KakashiHatake2000
Member
Wowza amazing structure from that supercell
Kds86z
Member
TornadoFan
Member
Nice inflow tail.
Kds86z
Member
66/55 that storm environment is in.
Kds86z
Member
First tornado warning out of Tucson NWS today
Kds86z
Member
From broyles:
VALID 212305Z - 220100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 688 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1006 MB LOW OVER THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED NEAR THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND WILL BE A
POTENTIAL LOCATION FOR CELL INITIATION. FURTHER TO THE NORTH,
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM DUE TO
UPSLOPE FLOW. TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIM, SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL ARIZONA ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F, WITH THE RAP
SHOWING SBCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. OVER THE TOP OF THIS MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS, A MID-LEVEL JET IS ANALYZED BY THE RAP OVER
WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS LIKELY MAXIMIZED TO THE
EAST OF THIS FEATURE OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA, WHICH WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
THIS MID-LEVEL JET IS CREATING STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVER MUCH OF
ARIZONA, WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING. THE
LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS EARLY THIS EVENING BETWEEN PHOENIX AND
FLAGSTAFF HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS. HODOGRAPHS ARE LONG
AND STRAIGHT, WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL. IN ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE
HELICITY IN THE 250 TO 300 M2/S2 RANGE, SUGGESTING THAT SUPERCELLS
WILL ALSO HAVE TORNADO POTENTIAL. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
..BROYLES.. 10/21/2026
VALID 212305Z - 220100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 688 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1006 MB LOW OVER THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED NEAR THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND WILL BE A
POTENTIAL LOCATION FOR CELL INITIATION. FURTHER TO THE NORTH,
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM DUE TO
UPSLOPE FLOW. TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIM, SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL ARIZONA ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F, WITH THE RAP
SHOWING SBCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. OVER THE TOP OF THIS MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS, A MID-LEVEL JET IS ANALYZED BY THE RAP OVER
WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS LIKELY MAXIMIZED TO THE
EAST OF THIS FEATURE OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA, WHICH WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
THIS MID-LEVEL JET IS CREATING STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVER MUCH OF
ARIZONA, WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING. THE
LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS EARLY THIS EVENING BETWEEN PHOENIX AND
FLAGSTAFF HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS. HODOGRAPHS ARE LONG
AND STRAIGHT, WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL. IN ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE
HELICITY IN THE 250 TO 300 M2/S2 RANGE, SUGGESTING THAT SUPERCELLS
WILL ALSO HAVE TORNADO POTENTIAL. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
..BROYLES.. 10/21/2026