Jacob Aden
Member
None of these cells have so much as a severe warning
Cell near Valle FINALLY got a tornado warning. That has been down for a long time. Notable cc drop and rotation with that one
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Severe all hazards threat for today wed 10/21 and tomorrow thurs 10/22 2026
- Thread starter KakashiHatake2000
- Start date
Cell near Valle FINALLY got a tornado warning. That has been down for a long time. Notable cc drop and rotation with that one
Jacob Aden
Member
Needs a warning ASAP
Jacob Aden
Member
Velocity has really been ramping up with this one as well. Uh oh
Jacob Aden
Member
What is happening with NWS Flagstaff?
TornadoFan
Member
Jacob Aden
Member
Not even a severe warning is absurd
Jacob Aden
Member
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
SCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR DATA FROM KFSX CONTINUES TO DEPICT
PERIODIC SUPERCELLS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
YAVAPAI INTO SOUTHERN COCONINO COUNTIES, WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
MAXIMIZED WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND RELATED
WARM-AIR ADVECTION. SIMILAR TO EARLIER THIS MORNING, MOST OF THESE
STORMS LOCALLY INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERACT WITH TERRAIN FEATURES,
WHERE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AND MESOSCALE ASCENT REMAIN MAXIMIZED.
GIVEN POCKETS OF DIURNAL HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS AND AROUND 150-200
M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH (PER OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS AND KFSX VWP), THIS
AREA SHOULD REMAIN LOCALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS, AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES IN THE NEAR TERM.
PERIODIC SUPERCELLS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
YAVAPAI INTO SOUTHERN COCONINO COUNTIES, WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
MAXIMIZED WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND RELATED
WARM-AIR ADVECTION. SIMILAR TO EARLIER THIS MORNING, MOST OF THESE
STORMS LOCALLY INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERACT WITH TERRAIN FEATURES,
WHERE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AND MESOSCALE ASCENT REMAIN MAXIMIZED.
GIVEN POCKETS OF DIURNAL HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS AND AROUND 150-200
M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH (PER OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS AND KFSX VWP), THIS
AREA SHOULD REMAIN LOCALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS, AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES IN THE NEAR TERM.
CheeselandSkies
Member
"Goof ball" is just the perfect hail type for Reed...
Although seriously, I was actually on a trip to the Southwest (passed through Williams) LAST October. Why couldn't there have been chaseable supercells then?
- Thread starter
- #32
KakashiHatake2000
Member
I think also national weather service Memphis said the term goof ball sized hail too hahahahahaha lol
Kds86z
Member
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
CAPE underperforming leading to a lot of transient supercells struggling to use the shear in the area. So it seems that this event's likely not gonna be as potent as model output previously suggested with multiple mature supercells given that the lesser than expected instability will cause a imbalance of how these cells use LL shear. Brief tors not ruled out. Let's see.
Been watching Croff and they think the peak threat is gonna be nocturnal. Possibly by around midnight based on their tone.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
You lose surface heating a good bit after dark and so does low level shear also begin to decrease in areas. Although this threat could legitimately carry on as far as 12-1am given the long duration forcing leading to many sporadic rounds of cells here and there.
I'd imagine that, today and tomorrow are gonna be super weird lol.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Yeah, one of those events. Usually, these type of multiple round events have lulls ans then some cells decide to take advantage of the environment. Would just keep the guard up the whole night if I was a central AZ resident.
Also still wouldn't rule out sigtors, there was one supercell this morning with substantial rotation and I have to imagine that energy is going to persist throughout the next two days. For one to actually happen though is probably gonna be on mesoscale shenanigans and weird high altitude interactions.