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Potential Severe Weather Threat May 1 - 4 2018 (1 Viewer)


Taylor Campbell

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Don't leave it for dead just yet, that storm near Binger looks pretty good.

That storm produced a tornado earlier, and has maintained rotation for a long time with several reports of a rotating wall cloud. You also have a supercell getting more tornadic looking to its southwest. Both of these look to be heading toward the Oklahoma City area.
 

buckeye05

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Riverside, Ohio
These storms are producing appendages and broad rotation, but no actual tight circulation. Throwing the towel in for this one. Today shaped up as almost as good as it possibly could have given the uncertainties (barring the early initiation), and still couldn’t produce. Even with a discrete mode and LLJ support, nada.

What an absolute garbage event.
 

warneagle

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Confirmed tornado near Frederick, OK. Potentially significant tornado. Strong radar signature.

EDIT: Confirmed large tornado, PDS warning.
 
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441
Location
Niagara Falls, Ontario
Confirmed tornado near Frederick, OK. Potentially significant tornado. Strong radar signature.

EDIT: Confirmed large tornado, PDS warning.
Fairly long lived, too...on the ground for about 20-25 minutes judging by radar.

Since the damage path is still being surveyed, I would not be too surprised at an upgrade to EF4 if anything was hit while the tornado was at peak strength.
 

buckeye05

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I really need to stop getting remotely optimistic about events with questionable kinematics and good thermo. Relying on boundaries and simply high CAPE on days with weak flow to produce tornadoes just typically does not end well. I'd say the exception may be where instability and or lapse rates reach truly obscene levels in the presence of weakly backed surface flow (Thinking Pilger and New Orleans outbreaks). Today just seemed like typical May plains CAPE levels tbh.
 

warneagle

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Yeah no doubt that storm near Frederick was the storm of the day. I guess we'll see how long the track was or whether it really hit anything at peak intensity, because it looked bad on radar.
 

warneagle

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I really need to stop getting remotely optimistic about events with questionable kinematics and good thermo. Relying on boundaries and simply high CAPE on days with weak flow to produce tornadoes just typically does not end well. I'd say the exception may be where instability and or lapse rates reach truly obscene levels in the presence of weakly backed surface flow (Thinking Pilger and New Orleans outbreaks). Today just seemed like typical May plains CAPE levels tbh.
Yeah, I don't think anyone was really expecting a high-end tornado event out of this (or I hope not anyway, given how weak the low level shear was probably going to be). Boring, but in terms of damage/injuries/fatalities, we'll have made out okay this spring unless this season has another big system left in it. We've certainly had a couple of near-miss big event setups.
 

warneagle

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Upgraded to a wind-driven moderate risk. I can't remember the last time New York had a moderate risk.

Tornado watch is also out. 40/20.
 

Equus

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Saragossa, AL
Can't say I entirely expected the magnitude of wind risk today. Might be a good day to try out some of the Canadian radar sites on Radarscope with the threat so far north. When was the last time northern Vermont was in the 10% TOR on a convective outlook anyway?
 

Shea234

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Fort Drum, NY
I’m a long time lurker, since the December 23, 2015 outbreak, anyways I just moved from Tennesse to New York with one of the main reasons being my tornado phobia. I am DYING at the irony of this situation right now. I’ve lived in New York an entire month.
 
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Location
Niagara Falls, Ontario
Well, power is back after being knocked out by hurricane-force winds on Friday. Some of the damage in my neighborhood is insane and at least three people in the area have lost their lives. I'll post some damage photos later.

The Tescott tornado was rated EF3.Only the third EF3 + tornado so far this year.
To be completely fair, that's more down to a lack of damage indicators and extreme conservativism with the ratings than any meteorological patterns. My personal guesstimate is that there have been about 6 or 7 EF3-strength tornadoes this year.
 
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