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Potential Severe Weather Threat May 1 - 4 2018 (1 Viewer)


xJownage

Member
Messages
366
Location
Jacksonville, Florida
The Tescott/Culver tornado looks to be ef-3/4 based on the motion; its a pretty strong looking tornado for sure, definitely the most well documented of the year so far as well considering the massive volume of chasers.

Oh and this.
 
Messages
441
Location
Niagara Falls, Ontario
The Tescott/Culver tornado looks to be ef-3/4 based on the motion; its a pretty strong looking tornado for sure, definitely the most well documented of the year so far as well considering the massive volume of chasers.

Oh and this.
Yeah I'd honestly say this was probably the second-strongest tornado of the year so far after the Coshutta, LA tornado on 4/6 (officially rated EF2, but a downright violent radar signature). The motion on this one was amazing and it also had an impressive radar signature.
 

buckeye05

Member
Messages
583
Location
Riverside, Ohio
Yeah I'd honestly say this was probably the second-strongest tornado of the year so far after the Coshutta, LA tornado on 4/6 (officially rated EF2, but a downright violent radar signature). The motion on this one was amazing and it also had an impressive radar signature.
Not to get too off topic, but have you seen the DAT damage pics from that tornado? Barely EF2. Several homes took a direct hit from the circulation and sustained relatively minor damage, and no trees sustained any real debarking at any point along the path. Whatever winds showed up on velocity did not translate to the ground.
 
Messages
441
Location
Niagara Falls, Ontario
Not to get too off topic, but have you seen the DAT damage pics from that tornado? Barely EF2. Several homes took a direct hit from the circulation and sustained relatively minor damage, and no trees sustained any real debarking at any point along the path. Whatever winds showed up on velocity did not translate to the ground.
1. Yes, I have, and I agree that the rating is EF2 based on known damage.

2. The closest any houses came to the center were on the edge of the area of highest rotation, not dead center. Often the highest winds can be in a very narrow corridor (think Plainfield) or in transient suction vortices (2013 Yukon/El Reno EF3).

3. The Niles, OH/Wheatland, PA tornado was one of the most violent ever recorded and failed to cause any major debarking of trees at any point in its path. The absence of any one damage indicator does not mean the tornado is weak, and on the flip side, a number of tornadoes with very strong recorded winds have failed to cause damage suggestive of EF4+ intensity.
 

buckeye05

Member
Messages
583
Location
Riverside, Ohio
All fair points, I was just incredibly underwhelmed by the damage from that tornado compared to the radar signature (speaking of which, i'm not sure how reliable that is for gauging intensity).
 

buckeye05

Member
Messages
583
Location
Riverside, Ohio
Great thermo, anemic low level shear today in the threat area. I’ve said it before, but I’m rarely a fan of setups where we must rely on mesoscale featured to get storms to spin. May not see much at all until LLJ (which made last nights event).
 

bwalk

Member
Messages
391
Location
North Prattville, Al
upload_2018-5-2_11-21-56.png

Re the tornado potential for today:

Oklahoma (western) looks to have the best potential. Good dew points (68-70), better upper-level winds, and good instability (e.g., SBCAPE = 2500-3000 J/kg).

The potential problem areas:

Will there be enough boundary layer heating to break the cap?

Will there be any outflow boundaries present for storm initiation?

Will there be enough low-level shear to help produce spin?


The STP for Southwestern OK later today/evening is off the chart. But, any of the limiting factors discussed above may keep the situation from being as serious as the STP suggests.
 
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buckeye05

Member
Messages
583
Location
Riverside, Ohio
Also should mention, this is a W Oklahoma setup, which for whatever reason, rarely seem to verify.

Edit: Early start. Worried things are going to get messy.
 
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Daryl

Member
Messages
316
Location
Boaz,AL

A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely.
 

buckeye05

Member
Messages
583
Location
Riverside, Ohio
Kansas activity is congealing into a huge wind maker. Storm mode is going to temper any significant tornado potential up there for the time being. While initiation in OK is a little early, I'm still holding out hope that something interesting will happen there, as low-level shear is turning out a little better than forecast.
 

bwalk

Member
Messages
391
Location
North Prattville, Al
That early-firing monster cell has stayed on the Ok/Kansas border (around Greensburg in this shot). The atmosphere in western Ok. remains undisturbed & ripe for action later on today. Actually, at 2:30pm, cells are starting to fire in extreme western Ok - right at the state line.

The concern has been that the better wind profiles (shear/LLJ) will not materialize until around 00Z and earlier storms may have already drained the atmosphere, leaving any new storms nothing, or not much, to work with.

Boundaries are showing up nicely now so that is a plus.


Radar at 3pm (GRLevel3)

upload_2018-5-2_15-5-10.png
 
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bwalk

Member
Messages
391
Location
North Prattville, Al
I currently cannot get any Kansas radars to work right now on GRLevel3. Don't know what the deal is.

And wouldn't you know it - the 1st TOR warnings of the day have just been issued up in north Kansas while everyone is watching Ok.

Edit: the flying eagle cell around Mangum, Ok has gone TOR warned.
 
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