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October 10th, 2021 Severe Weather Threat (1 Viewer)

Tennie

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New MCD for southwestern OK:

mcd1822.gif

Discussion:

Mesoscale Discussion 1822
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0425 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Areas affected...Southwest Oklahoma into western North Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 517...

Valid 102125Z - 102300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 517 continues.

SUMMARY...Initiation of discrete storms is becoming more likely in
the vicinity of Frederick, OK within the next 1-1.5 hours. The
threat for tornadoes is increasing in southwest Oklahoma into parts
of central Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus continues to develop south of
Frederick, OK. The strongest pressure falls in the last few hours
have occurred in this vicinity. Confidence is increasing in storm
initiation within the next 1-1.5 hours. Given the backed surface
winds and over 50 kts of effective shear, initial storm mode will
likely be supercellular. KFDR VWP has begun to show an increase in
low-level SRH recently as well. Storms that form in this region
would pose the greatest tornado risk over the next few hours.

..Wendt.. 10/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON 33819849 33849879 33949902 34059910 34529892 34989844
35259790 35289751 35069737 34389761 33819849
 

Tennie

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Sorry for the double post, but I came across a potential mitigating factor for today's severe threat:

oun2110102000z.jpg

That's today's 20z observed sounding from KOUN. Note that there seems to be about 169 MLCIN. That's quite a bit of MLCIN that would need to be eroded (and quickly) in order to get sustained convective updrafts going, particularly away from the triple point.

Of course, we'll just have to see how things play out...
 

Tennie

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TOR on the supercell near Altus:

799
WFUS54 KOUN 102239
TOROUN
OKC031-075-102330-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0023.211010T2239Z-211010T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Norman OK
539 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northwestern Comanche County in southwestern Oklahoma...
Central Kiowa County in southwestern Oklahoma...

* Until 630 PM CDT.

* At 539 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 5 miles east of Warren, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and tennis ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Mountain View, Roosevelt, Cooperton, Tom Steed Reservoir and
northwestern Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room or an interior
room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you
are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest
substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3511 9875 3478 9869 3470 9914 3470 9915
3476 9916 3476 9915 3477 9916 3479 9916
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 236DEG 28KT 3476 9912

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN

$$

..speg.
 
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Of course it's tracking right through the Wichitas, when I drove into those on 5/20/19 I was like "WTF are there mountains in southwest Oklahoma?!" I had been anticipating everything west of I-35 in OK to be wide open Plains.
 
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Dot of enhanced reflectivity at the tip of the hook in the 2319Z KFDR scan. Not sure if it's a legit debris ball, though. CC is inconclusive.

Edit: Gone in next scan.
 

Tennie

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Nick Busby, Mark Drees, and Bob Pack have some rather impressive structures on their respective streams:

 

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