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Severe WX Multi-day Severe Weather Threat 3/12-3/14/2019

Equus said:
Yikes, storm N of Wetumpka back with a vengeance BIG TIME. Biggest velocity couplet of the day and CC drop
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Hard to say but it looks like from Google Maps that storm might have impacted Holtville.
 
EF-1 damage so far with Chilton tornado and tornado confirmed in Cullman county. Possibly 5+ separate paths from the late night beast supercells; BMX alone is looking at nine areas of interest.
 
Equus said:
EF-1 damage so far with Chilton tornado and tornado confirmed in Cullman county. Possibly 5+ separate paths from the late night beast supercells; BMX alone is looking at nine areas of interest.
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One of them is about a half mile south from my house where it looks like the track ended. Very distinct track to the SW staying a half mile to mile out of Goodwater. Trees, powerlines and barn tin is the only casualties.
 
Looks like the Elmore County, AL tornado has been rated EF-2. The strongest tornado surveyed so far by BMX. They have confirmed 5 tornadoes in their CWA so far, and say there may be as many as 12 possible tornado tracks total.
 
Legitimate significant outbreak numbers there. Might be approaching some of the higher pre-April tornado counts in AL on record... I need to look into that.

Ironically the vast majority of the touchdowns were south or east of the 10%/hatched. Imagine how much worse this would have been had high instability spread further north.
 
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Checking surveys, I'm seeing ~12 in AL from the March 3rd event and 9 for Jan and Feb... IF we do confirm all 12 from yesterday's event for BMX plus the one in HUN in Cullman county, that will be 34 tornadoes as of March 14th in AL. Very impressive. Not that it translates any at all to later season activity, but just for statistics' sake, the last two decades, through March 14:

1999: 12
2000: 11
2001: 4
2002: 0
2003: 4
2004: 2
2005: 2
2006: 18
2007: 19 (two violent)
2008: 32 (two violent)
2009: 7
2010: 2
2011: 11
2012: 27
2013: 7
2014: 6
2015: 10
2016: 25
2017: 22
2018: 9
2019: <34? (one violent)

So we might have a record start thus far (2008 had two on 3/15 though, bringing it to 34 as of 3/15) Granted we won't break the yearly record because of April 2011, but still.
 
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Detroit confirmed an additional EF-0 in Shiawasee County. Paducah confirmed an EF-2 that passed within a couple of miles of the NWS office.
 
BMX has now confirmed not just 12, but 14 tornadoes in their CWA. I think that brings the yearly total to 36, which breaks the old record by two. We have a record number of tornadoes in AL thus far this year and that should stand for at least another week and a half.
 
Equus said:
BMX has now confirmed not just 12, but 14 tornadoes in their CWA. I think that brings the yearly total to 36, which breaks the old record by two. We have a record number of tornadoes in AL thus far this year and that should stand for at least another week and a half.
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We will be adding to that number if model guidance for next Monday holds serve.
 
Now we're up to 15 in BMX... so 16 total. I gotta take a look at statistics again because we may have also broken the March record, with two 12+ tornado count outbreaks in the first half of the month.
 
Austin Dawg said:
What do models say about central Texas? I'm getting some soundings that are showing severe potential around here with this upcoming system.
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Which day are you talking about? The next three days do not show anything severe.
 
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