Hurricane Melissa

[joshoctober16]

its once again shooting out shock waves out of it.

 

[lake.effect]

I've got to disagree with you there, at least in terms of the permanent population. Most of Kingston, all of Saint Catherine, etc. - all up off the water enough that surge isn't a huge risk, at least according to the model I posted above.


Yes.

Right, but the areas higher in elevation are far enough inland that, even if they were not elevated, would be protected from the surge due to being far away enough from the sea.

A really bad surge can go inland 1/2 mile, maybe 1 mile tops under ideal conditions (Katrina, for example. The entire MS coast is flat as a pancake).

Kingston's downtown area and immediate surroundings are not elevated. There is plenty of very populated terrain near the coast (within 1 mile) that is essentially flat.

 

[joshoctober16]

a lot of ripple shock waves getting kicked out from it.

 

[N0mz]

Migth be a buzzsaw tomorrow morning

 

[Clancy]

NHC forecasts landfall at strong C4 strength. On the plus side, elevations in the center of Jamaica might shield the north to some degree. On the downside, large cities like Port Moore (150,000+) and Kingston (>650,000) are topographically very shallow, and the shape of Kingston Harbor and surrounding environs may amplify surge. Kingston's larger airport is located in an extremely vulnerable location. Some residential areas in the northern areas of the capital may be protected from surge, but not from wind. All-in-all, an extremely dangerous situation for Jamaica's south.

 

[joshoctober16]

Forecast to cat 5 48 hours from now

lets hope it weakens like it says it will for now.

then again i hope it moves faster , then again some models make it go towards where i live.

 

[joshoctober16]

never seen it say 3 for PW

also over 1000 mm of rain

 

[wx_guy]

I think we're about a couple days from witnessing something truly horrific.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Blountwolf]

I think we're about a couple days from witnessing something truly horrific.

I sadly very much agree. The landslides, inland flooding, surge where it is flat... all just sideshows (albeit horrible ones!) for the fact that cat 4+ winds for that long of a duration will just shred a place.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I don't do doom and gloom, and never will.

But when you've got a high end hurricanes with biblical levels of rain approaching the most populated city in Jamaica, there is a decent chance a absolutely dire situation will unfold. Do not downplay this, this doesn't have to be a C5 to cause the most horrific impacts. Katrina wasn't a C5 within landfall, it was C3 and still caused a a absolutely unforgettable level of destruction across NOLA. People are at sincere danger if they do not evacuate.

 

[Blountwolf]

Stacked, shear basically gone - I expect we'll have a clear eye within hours and a major by morning.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Stacked, shear basically gone - I expect we'll have a clear eye within hours and a major by morning.
View attachment 47787

Here we go.

 

[Ozonelayer]

First time tracking a hurricane. Looking at everything, this is extremely dire. I cannot put into words how terrible this is shaping up to be. This is looking terrible, and it hasn't even made landfall.

Keep a very close eye on how large it gets as well; there is a chance the entire southern coast gets bombarded by significant storm surge of some kind.

 

[lake.effect]

I think we could see a major before midnight...

 

[lake.effect]

btw, the official forecast is now calling for 40" in isolated places on Jamaica's east coast with widespread 30-40 inches in that area.

Kingston averages 32 inches of rain per year.

 

[Blountwolf]

First time tracking a hurricane.

Welcome to a hobby that will consume your Septembers and Octobers. My first time tracking one was in the 90s, but I think I started tracking every one after Charley hit Punta Gorda in 04.

Migth be a buzzsaw tomorrow morning

45 minutes later...

 

[Clancy]

Yikes. TS-force winds are likely already swiping at the far eastern tip of Jamaica. A potentially historic storm in the making.

 

[Atlantic]

Another year, another RI storm. Seems like the new normal at this point.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

I- I have really crappy gut feeling rn its moving extremely slowly in the hot tub of hot tubs, I just have that feeling this won't weaken at landfall, man I hope they took actions for safety