Severe WX May 19-20, 2022 Severe Event

[TH2002]

Not sure why I find myself starting yet another severe threat thread, but here we go.

D2 ENH with 5% tornado probs over parts of MN, WI and IA. Not expecting an upgrade to MDT due the potential limiting factors (the cap and modest shear being the particular ones that caught my attention), but anything can happen I suppose. Most impressive forecasted sounding I can get with the GFS SCP model is located in south central MN around the 18z timeframe tomorrow, which shows no cap along with decent CAPE and SRH, though again modest shear.

Wondering if this is going to be another Winterset esque setup that ends up catching people like me largely by surprise, or if nothing will happen.

Of note is that there is also a HUGE SLGT area stretching all the way from Missouri through the Carolinas, with a corresponding 5% tornado area through MO, IL, IN and KY.

 

[TH2002]

Severe probs upped to ENH over eastern MO through southern IL, IN and extreme western KY. Tornado watch with 50/20 probs out for MO. Severe wind probabilities and severe hail probabilities respectively upped to 30% and 30% SIG SEVERE over parts of northern IA, south central and southeastern MN and west central WI. Latest MD from the SPC mentions another TOR watch is probable over north central IA and south central MN.

 

[TH2002]

Tornado watch with 40/20 probs went up about 20 minutes ago in the ENH area over IA, WI and MN - definitely lower probabilities than I was expecting. A regular SVR TSTM watch was just issued in other parts of MN and WI.

 

[TH2002]

Several tornado warnings have popped up in MO and KY with the bowing segment and semi-discrete supercell clusters there, while some nasty-looking SVR warned cells have popped up in southern MN... naturally in a pretty bad radar hole, figures. However, they are visible on the ARX radar site via the (awful) NWS Radar page.

 

[TH2002]

New TOR with 40/20 probabilities for the bowing segment about to cross into IL from MO, while southwestern IN and western KY are also in the watch area. Also, the isolated cell NE of Eau Claire ahead of the QLCS in WI bears watching, with even the QLCS showing signs of embedded supercell structures.

 

[cheestaysfly]

Concerned about that tornado warning over St.Louis, MO! My mom lives in Kirkwood. Thankfully she has a basement.

 

[buckeye05]

Fairly significant TDS is the St. Louis metro. Blew up over Rock Hill and went through LaDue. Seen a few of these already today but this is the deepest CC drop I’ve seen today.

 

[TH2002]

New MD mentioning tornado potential with any discrete cells that develop in the warm sector in IL/IN/KY before the line moves through.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 833

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[buckeye05]

QLCS tornado near Pierron, IL

 

[TH2002]

Looks like an isolated cell did develop ahead of the line in the mesoscale discussion area. This is in SW IN, curious to see if it'll actually do anything.

 

[TH2002]

New MD ahead of the new cell:

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 834

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

There is yet another cell to its northeast that is breaking away from a storm cluster and appears to be becoming more discrete.

 

[TH2002]

"Widespread damage" reported from a tornado near Breese, IL.

 

[TH2002]

Kirkwood (STL metro) tornado rated EF0, damage surveys being conducted in Breese, IL and Franklin County, MO. The Breese tornado reportedly lofted debris up to 7,000 feet, so it was likely the strongest tornado of the day.

And while this thread is still up might as well mention that a new TOR watch with 40/20 probs is up for the northeast including DE, MD, NJ, VA, WV, and PA. Interesting as an EF1 tornado just occurred in New Hampshire a few days ago.

 

[TH2002]

This relatively isolated cell riding the MD-WV border has been TOR warned for a while now. Wondering if it'll drop a tornado.

edit: nevermind it fell apart with the next scan

 

[TH2002]

Looks like we could be getting a Michigan surprise... this cell organized from a squall line in a SVR TSTM watch area rather quickly and definitely has "that look"... and is that a CC drop I see?

edit: It's warned now.

 

[Equus]

Debris ball evident, may be a strong one

 

[TH2002]

That's definitely on the ground

 

[warneagle]

That's where my in laws live. I'm really worried about them.

 

[TH2002]

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
346 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022

MIC137-202000-
/O.CON.KAPX.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220520T2000Z/
Otsego MI-
346 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
OTSEGO COUNTY...

At 345 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over Gaylord, moving northeast at 50 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

The tornado will be near...
Vanderbilt and Sparr around 355 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A dangerous tornado is on the ground. take immediate tornado
precautions. this is an emergency situation.

&&

LAT...LON 4504 8453 4500 8474 4503 8477 4506 8476
4508 8474 4514 8466 4518 8460 4513 8458
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 246DEG 45KT 4503 8471

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN

$$

Cornish

 

[warneagle]

Watching Jordan Hall's stream he's driving down M-32 (the main street in Gaylord) and it just looks windy but no serious damage. My MIL lives a few blocks from there so hopefully it's missed that area, since that's the main part of the town.