Severe WX March 30th- April 1st 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest)

[kcyalater]

the two Arkansas storms seem to be struggling a bit... but we all saw what the Memphis storm did. Wouldn't be surprised to see them do similar things and verify that Southern High Risk area in the next 1-4 hours.

they are really far from the upper support. i think this will limit the threat across MS and west TN as the low lifts NE

 

[JPWX]

Scary part is that the overall threat for North MS hasn't started yet. Under a PDS Tornado Watch now until 1am

 

[UK_EF4]

they are really far from the upper support. i think this will limit the threat across MS and west TN as the low lifts NE

Looks like the southern one starting to get an intensifying mid-level meso and bwer visible from Memphis radar. Not to say the same thing will happen, but that cyclic cell with multiple strong tornadoes did exactly that before producing...

 

[JPWX]

I'm currently at 77 degrees in Smithville, MS with a dewpoint of 66. AT 6:30pm!

 

[warneagle]

They are struggling, but they have so much untapped energy waiting for them as they get closer and closer to the river.

And they're moving into an area with better kinematic support too (cf. that insane hodograph from Memphis).

 

[UK_EF4]

St. Louis storm giving me some nasty vibes... getting the look of a long tracked tornadic supercell in its formative stages...
Hopefully am wrong.

 

[172556]

Massive debris fallout from Sherman, IL.

 

[buckeye05]

Geneseo, IL just got hit by a small one

 

[UK_EF4]

 

[vanni9283]

Tornado warnings going off like crazy on Ryan Hall's stream!

 

[warneagle]

St. Louis storm giving me some nasty vibes... getting the look of a long tracked tornadic supercell in its formative stages...
Hopefully am wrong.

VTP in that area is 8-9 per mesoanalysis so definitely moving into a favorable environment for further intensification

 

[UK_EF4]

 

[vanni9283]

Where is this?

 

[Austin Dawg]

 

[cincywx]

keep an eye on the fairly discrete tor warned cell in south central arkansas

 

[warneagle]

Some insight on the strange behavior of the Covington cell

 

[akt1985]

Hopefully the tornado that passed north of Memphis earlier will also pass north of Jackson, Tennessee.

 

[atrainguy]

 

[UK_EF4]

This supercell in Central IL has managed to become dominant out of the line and now has deviant right motion. Could produce strong tornadoes over the next 1-2 hours imo.

 

[cincywx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0414
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...FAR NORTHWESTERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN TENNESSEE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 94...

VALID 312334Z - 010030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 94 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT INCREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...TWO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE BORDERS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF
BETTER ORGANIZATION OVER THE LAST HOUR. THE SOUTHERN OF THE TWO
CELLS HAS A HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL UP TO 1.75". THESE SUPERCELLS ARE
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD RAPIDLY AROUND 40-50 MPH INTO A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MEMPHIS METRO. THE VAD
PROFILE FROM KNQA (MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE) SHOWS OBSERVED 0-1KM SRH
AROUND 530 M2/S2. 0-3 KM SRH IS OBSERVED AT AROUND 700 M2/S2. IN
ADDITION, SURFACE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE AROUND 1000-1500
J/KG, WITH THE AREA NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MEMPHIS AREA LARGELY
UNDISTURBED FROM EARLIER STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGE. THIS
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES. AS THESE CELLS CONTINUE A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THEY ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY, GIVEN
THEIR DISCRETE NATURE AND DOWNSTREAM FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO
EASTERN TENNESSEE AND FAR NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

..THORNTON/EDWARDS.. 03/31/2023