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Severe WX March 30th- April 1st 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest)

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
IOWA...WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND IN PART OF
EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN
TENNESSEE......

..SUMMARY

A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MULTIPLE STRONG
TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED, SOME LONG TRACKED. A VIOLENT TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HIGH RISK AREAS. SWATHS OF INTENSE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

..20Z UPDATE

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH NUMEROUS STORMS CURRENTLY FROM IA NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHWARD ALONG A DRYLINE INTO NORTHEAST TX. THE AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE OVER THIS EXPANSIVE AREA, WITH LARGE-SCALE
LIFT INCREASE AS WELL. SHEAR WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL TORNADOES WITHIN MULTIPLE REGIMES FROM THE SURFACE
LOW/VORT MAX ACROSS IA/MO/IL TO THE TRAILING DRYLINE OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY WHERE DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE ARE GREATER. 0-1 KM SHEAR IS
PARTICULARLY STRONG CURRENTLY FROM CENTRAL AR INTO SOUTHEAST MO,
WITH INCREASING VALUES EXPECTED THROUGH EVENING TO THE NORTHEAST.

AS A STRONG VORT MAX WITH RAPID COOLING ALOFT OVERSPREAD THE IA AND
NORTHERN MO/IL REGION, EXISTING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY,
WITH SEVERAL LIKELY BECOMING TORNADIC AND PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL.
THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THIS REGION WILL MAXIMIZE UPDRAFTS,
AND MAY SUPPORT SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES. RISING DEWPOINTS WOULD
FURTHER SUPPORT THE TORNADO RISK LATER TODAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE ANY OF MULTIPLE MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS THAT
REMAIN IN EFFECT, INCLUDING #397 FOR NE MO/CENTRAL IL, #398 FOR
NORTHERN MO, #399 FOR CENTRAL AR AND #400 FOR NORTHERN IL INTO FAR
SOUTHERN WI.

..JEWELL.. 03/31/2023
 
Last edited:
Argus said:
Starting to see hook on the 2nd Little Rock storm.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that may need a tornado warning soon. Looks like it has improved all the way up to the radar site and as we often see secondary tornadoes follow very closely to the southern side of the first tornado.
 
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