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Severe WX March 30th- April 1st 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest)

Casuarina Head said:
Question for specialists here: how many top-end tornado outbreaks have coincided with upper-50s °F dew points? I honestly think that this is a valid point to be addressed, along with the low-level inversion that others mentioned. It could prevent the northern 30% TOR from verifying.
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I'm not an expert by any means, but just briefly researching Palm Sunday on Tornado Archive there were a bunch of F3-F4s in areas with upper 50s-lower 60s dew points and less than 2,000 SBCAPE so it's definitely possible
 
CC is messy on the Little Rock storm. At first glance thought it was a weak tds, but probably just messy. Just appeared in one scan


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Penitentes said:
View attachment 19394

Storms versus the highest risk areas.
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Not only are the ones in Arkansas outside of the high risk area, at least a couple of them will never hit the high risk area.


This is the warm up act. Like I said last week, the Black Crowes are playing right now, but the Stones are hitting the stage later.
 
treypops said:
Not only are the ones in Arkansas outside of the high risk area, at least a couple of them will never hit the high risk area.


This is the warm up act. Like I said last week, the Black Crowes are playing right now, but the Stones are hitting the stage later.
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We'll be OK til Widespread Panic starts warming up.
 
ColdFront said:
Yeah, and I’m guilty of this, thinking the storms will start dropping tor’s wherever they form (like 4/27/11) instead of them forming and moving into the environment that is highlighted by SPC
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It’s easy to fall into that if you followed 4/27 as it unfolded. I’m guilty of seeing a high risk still and expecting everything to just start magically producing, forgetting that days like 4/27 don’t really even fit into just the “high” category.
 
Jacob said:
It’s easy to fall into that if you followed 4/27 as it unfolded. I’m guilty of seeing a high risk still and expecting everything to just start magically producing, forgetting that days like 4/27 don’t really even fit into just the “high” category.
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04/27/2011 was basically a High Risk that was jacked up on bath salts, steroids, and PCP. It was perhaps more deserving of something like, say, an "Extreme Risk" or something similar.
 
One good thing about this event happening on a Friday night is that many don’t have work the next day and can stay up late watching the storms until they pass. On the bad side, there is an increased chance of people going out tonight as they don’t have work the next day, which could lead to disastrous results if they aren’t paying attention to the weather.
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
206 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MERCER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
WESTERN PUTNAM COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT.
 
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