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Severe WX March 30th- April 1st 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest)

Kinda curious if today will overperform on instability in the southern extent of the moderate and enchaned. I guess close trends of instability will be important.

The HRRR has been abysmal in the warm sector quality of instability as of late it feels like.
 
Kinda curious if today will overperform on instability in the southern extent of the moderate and enchaned. I guess close trends of instability will be important.

The HRRR has been abysmal in the warm sector quality of instability as of late it feels like.
Been saying this for a couple of days now....lots of talk about what the profiles look like up north, and rightfully so. But this could be particularly dangerous along the southern edge of the moderate (now enhanced) areas and even a little south of it. I expect to see a high risk at some point today.
 
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^ What are the odds that the outcome will come even remotely close to the above solutions? At least mixing looks to be less of a concern for instability...
 
12z HRRR sounding for Amory, MS area. HRRR has surface based CAPE getting up to 1263 with forecasted CAPE up to 2551.
 

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Where is all of this talk about “downtrending“ coming from? I see nothing of the sort. Models have remained consistent with the circumstances.
Im not even bothering with the Nam because it’s utterly abysmal with theses kinds of things.
That's what I'm wondering. Definitely not seeing a downtrend.
 
Where is all of this talk about “downtrending“ coming from? I see nothing of the sort. Models have remained consistent with the circumstances.
Im not even bothering with the Nam because it’s utterly abysmal with theses kinds of things.
It's the usual wobble models will downtrend significantly about 24 hours out or so and then ramp back up extremely fast.

All pistons are still firing this event is a go.
 
Where is all of this talk about “downtrending“ coming from? I see nothing of the sort. Models have remained consistent with the circumstances.
Im not even bothering with the Nam because it’s utterly abysmal with theses kinds of things.
I'm sure fatigue over the many "busts" has something to do with it, although folks in Rolling Fork, Silver City, Winona, and Amory, MS don't feel like anything Atmospheric Anti-Climax weather-wise.

I'm not into hyping the weather but we need to take this one seriously today.
 
Been saying this for a couple of days now....lots of talk about what the profiles look like up north, and rightfully so. But this could be particularly dangerous along the southern edge of the moderate (now enhanced) areas and even a little south of it. I expect to see a high risk at some point today.
Yeah, I always have to check myself when looking at the models because they have some pretty bad biases.

I'm pretty sure the NWS has taken note with the large moderate and a probable bimodal high risk coming later.
 
I haven’t had a chance to run updated models for timing. Are we still looking at initial storms firing around 7pm and eventually making it into the TN Valley around midnight


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I'm sure fatigue over the many "busts" has something to do with it, although folks in Rolling Fork, Silver City, Winona, and Amory, MS don't feel like anything Atmospheric Anti-Climax weather-wise.

I'm not into hyping the weather but we need to take this one seriously today.
Nope they sure don't. Actually, we're hoping nothing major happens especially me in Monroe County to add insult to injury. My mom is actually the president of the United Way of Northeast MS based out of Tupelo. She has been all hands on deck bringing in supplies to Amory and getting them to Smithville and Wren. I've been helping her a lot. When the Smithville, MS tornado came through in 2011, she was the United Way director for Monroe County. She pretty much did the same thing in that. Found a big warehouse and started bring supplies in and getting them out. To say she's overwhelmed is an understatement.
 
It’s coming to the point that nowcasting is much more viable than models. When you see cape values above 2500 and SigT parameters above 6 when it’s not even 9 o-clock yet, it’s a pretty ominous sign.1680269574197.gif1680269548850.gif
 
I haven’t had a chance to run updated models for timing. Are we still looking at initial storms firing around 7pm and eventually making it into the TN Valley around midnight


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I think we'll start to see some activity a couple of hours earlier than that.
 
Nope they sure don't. Actually, we're hoping nothing major happens especially me in Monroe County to add insult to injury. My mom is actually the president of the United Way of Northeast MS based out of Tupelo. She has been all hands on deck bringing in supplies to Amory and getting them to Smithville and Wren. I've been helping her a lot. When the Smithville, MS tornado came through in 2011, she was the United Way director for Monroe County. She pretty much did the same thing in that. Found a big warehouse and started bring supplies in and getting them out. To say she's overwhelmed is an understatement.
We've been involved in collecting and getting supplies to Rolling Fork and Silver City. The damage is unimaginable, and that's poor people, most of whom have no insurance and lost everything. I was down in the area on Wednesday. Tip of the cap to your mother and everyone working with her, doing God's work.
 
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