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Severe WX March 26th-27th, 2023

The boundary has become even more evident on the 18z hrrr 70-71 dewpoints with a sharp drop off of about 5-7 degrees just a mile or so northwest of it.
 
jiharris0220 said:
Seriously, why does a radar just oh suddenly require maintenance that just so happens to be when a major severe weather threat is present.
It never fails to occur.
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The upgrade was scheduled a couple of years ago
 
Why not, the ingredients were not REALLY in place across Georgia this morning either. The frontal boundaries are in place and so is the convergence across Louisiana and the numerous boundaries from the storms across Alabama and Georgia this morning. SIgnificant instability is already in place across the region.
 
southmdwatcher said:
Why not, the ingredients were not REALLY in place across Georgia this morning either. The frontal boundaries are in place and so is the convergence across Louisiana and the numerous boundaries from the storms across Alabama and Georgia this morning. SIgnificant instability is already in place across the region.
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Yeah this evening really does have potential for long trackers and significant tornadoes. Given the proximity and potential of a few cells to really lock on the boundary and utilize the shear enhancement.

Probably a pretty rough afternoon I'm afraid
 
The HRRR is struggling incredibly bad this afternoon on handling the amount of instability. I mean it's off by about 1000j over portions of south Mississippi.
 
Damage from the tornado in Georgia was significantly more intense than I imagined. Looks high end EF3 with even some relatively strong contextual damage. If it goes EF4 it would only be low end of course but unless a home is well built I doubt that would occur. Quite significant though really from an unexpected tornado. And in the lower likelihood scenario it is rated EF4 it would be the first time we had two EF4s from separate events within a week since 2020!
 
It's not often in the southeast you come across significant tornado days that are characterized as extreme instability/ low shear events..

Doesn't require extreme amounts of shear but when you are very good streamwise and have a lot of instability.. whoo boy
 
southmdwatcher said:
As per GREarth the MLCape is already at 2300 to 3300 across much of the target regions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama
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That'll aid in violent updrafts with almost perfect streamwise shear. Reminds me of a simialr day that created a ef4 over Georgia a year or two ago. Not extreme shear but was darn good streamwise. (If my memory serves me correct that was the conditions can't remeber for sure my brain gets foggy on a lot of setups, pretty sure the synoptics were really good as well.) *CORRECTION , Looked up the data it had a lot more shear than I thought. So nvm about the analogy*
 
Slightly reminds me of 19th April 2020. Produced mainly weak tornadoes with messy supercells but ended up with a nocturnal EF4 as shear increased. Not to say same thing will happen but there are a couple of similarities to me.
 
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