Severe WX March 26th-27th, 2023

[KevinH]

A moderate for tornadoes today.
I'm quite surprised

I believe the MOD risk is actually hail driven at 45# tor is 15#

 

[MoonBaby]

I’m just hanging out, waiting for the risk to creep closer to Tuscaloosa. Because it usually tries to. I’m the only one in my family that pays attention to weather and nerds out over it. So here I am with you fine people.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I believe the MOD risk is actually hail driven at 45# tor is 15#

No, moderate driven tornado. 15% hatched .

Actually both could have triggered moderate so it's both but yes tornado 15% sig would have.

 

[southmdwatcher]

The outlook meets Moderate criteria for both hail and tornadoes

 

[Timhsv]

Like I was kinda yelling about Thursday night. The NAM was onto something when all the others model trends were not so much.
Springtime in Alabama . Make sure if you have students at Auburn to give them a "heads-up" folks

 

[campbell_preston]

Storm southwest of Montgomery starting to get that look…

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Like I was kinda yelling about Thursday night. The NAM was onto something when all the others model trends were not so much.
Springtime in Alabama . Make sure if you have students at Auburn to give them a "heads-up" folks

That NAM solution was kind of out of left field and unlike anything the other models had for today; if it had verified verbatim the tornado threat would be focused further north and perhaps be even greater, with stronger low-level shear.

I guess it's not altogether surprising that what we have is a sort of compromise between that and the other models.

 

[warneagle]

Storm southwest of Montgomery starting to get that look…

That's right around where the strongest shear is at the moment. Not overly impressive but still 200+ SRH.

 

[tornado examiner]

 

[TornadoFan]

Must have been a fairly stout tornado that went through there.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Must have been a fairly stout tornado that went through there.

Expecting a ef3 with that. Although it's be crazy if there was another ef4 two days in arow with that tornado

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Earlier today

 

[TornadoFan]

Expecting a ef3 with that. Although it's be crazy if there was another ef4 two days in arow

 

[warneagle]

View attachment 19181

Definitely a juicy atmosphere, especially for late March; once the low-level shear starts to increase this could be a problem. The only saving grace is that the shear away from the boundary might not be optimal, otherwise there might be some substantial OWS supercells.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[keithGA]

Always cool to see structure in Dixie. Kinda rare around here.

 

[RollTide18]

Is the MDT too far south? (ALA speaking)

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Just kinda get the gut feeling that there's gunna be a pretty bad tornado or two.. hrrr (given it's the hrrr and it's bad track record it seems of late lol) has plenty of supercells firing on or directly below it on the projected boundary and even a cell or two really being incredibly intense along it.

Streamwise vorticity is pretty much perfect along with extreme low level instability

 

[MoonBaby]

Is the MDT too far south? (ALA speaking)

I was just about to post this too

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I was just about to post this too

I think it's good on the tornado threat maybe not the wind or hail.