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Severe WX March 26th-27th, 2023

This storm near Grove Hill, AL is showing some signs of rotation. Of course, as storms like these move east, they'll be going into a radar hole :)
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It's really amazing how spatially tight the risk levels are from MRGL to MDT in W. AL. Within 50mi (N. of Tuscaloosa to Demopolis) you run from MRGL to MDT. Really drives home how good the SPC is at their job and how far the science has come.
 
TCLwx said:
It's really amazing how spatially tight the risk levels are from MRGL to MDT in W. AL. Within 50mi (N. of Tuscaloosa to Demopolis) you run from MRGL to MDT. Really drives home how good the SPC is at their job and how far the science has come.
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Yeah it's basically a reflection of the fact that the overall dynamic support isn't that impressive and the area with sufficient wind shear is going to be confined to the areas close to the boundary (which is obvious on mesoanalysis).
 
TornadoFan said:
At one area in SW Mississippi, they're showing 79 degree temps with 79 degree dewpoints.
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That's gotta be an error. No way you're getting a 79F Td 30 miles north of the 71F isodrosotherm like that. Starkville is also way off on temperature like it was the other day. You'd think they'd recognize this stuff and fix it.
 
New short-term AFD from BMX.
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023

A southwest flow persist aloft over the area while a warm front
remains positioned from south of Demopolis to near Clanton to
south of Anniston. Well-defined surface convergence along with
divergence aloft with shortwave disturbances moving over the area
all continue to provide support for shower and thunderstorm
activity. Currently, instability values are the highest across the
southwest portion of the state and that is where the heaviest
activity is ongoing and more development is expected through the
afternoon. The surface warm front has been encountering more
resistance than expected due to weak wedging effects evidenced in
the persistent easterly winds near the Interstate 20 corridor with
dew points in the 50s.

This afternoon.

A few disturbances will continue to move northeast aloft across
the area while instability remains strongest to the southwest of
the area. Expect continued showers and thunderstorms with some
severe storms remaining possible. The primary risk will continue
to be for large hail and some damaging winds. The risk of a
tornado or two will remain possible in closer proximity to the
warm front where wind shear will be greatest. The warm front is
expected to move further north late this afternoon, becoming
positioned south of the Interstate 20 corridor. Winds will
converge toward the front with speeds from 6-12 mph. Temperatures
will range the upper 60s in the higher elevations east to the mid
80s across the far southeast.

Tonight.

Some more potent disturbances aloft will move over South-Central
Mississippi this evening and progress northeast over the area
tonight. Surface low pressure is forecast to develop across
Mississippi and move northeast across the area this evening and
overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread
through the evening and overnight with some severe storms
remaining possible. Large hail and damaging winds will continue to
be possible. A tornado risk will exist with best potential closer
to the warm front and the surface low pressure system as it moves
northeast along the warm front. Winds will continue to converge
along the warm front with speeds from 4-8 mph. Lows will range
from the mid 50s northwest to the upper 60s southeast.

Monday.

A southwest flow will continue aloft on Monday while a surface
cold front will push southeast across the area through the day as
expansive surface high pressure builds over the Northern Plains.
Expect shower and thunderstorm activity to become increasingly
confined to the southeast counties through the afternoon as drier
air moves in from the northwest. Winds areawide will become
northwest at 6-12 mph. Highs will range from the low 70s northeast
to around 80 southeast.
Click to expand...
 
warneagle said:
Yeah it's basically a reflection of the fact that the overall dynamic support isn't that impressive and the area with sufficient wind shear is going to be confined to the areas close to the boundary (which is obvious on mesoanalysis).
Click to expand...
Wow we went from a 1/5 level peak risk to 4/5 in just 2 days! But yeah the Bham risk has barely budged despite both Montgomery & Selma being in the very narrow "bullseye." I hope that these zones don't creep northward thru the day.

But most importantly we really do not need a Fri night type event in an area that had its own EF2s & 3s outbreak in January. Once again the highest risks lie in another area with quite an overabundance of substandard housing/construction.
 
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